Tuesday, July 25, 2023

The odds would seem to be astronomically low. But they are not zero.

A suitable reminder that many things are highly improbable while still having a non-zero probability of them happening.  

From Obama Family Chef Dies While Paddleboarding on Martha’s Vineyard by Remy Tumin.  The subheading is Tafari Campbell was a sous chef at the White House during the Obama administration and stayed on with the family when they moved to private life.

A personal chef to the Obama family died over the weekend after he was seen struggling in the water while paddleboarding near the former first family’s home on Martha’s Vineyard, the Massachusetts State Police said on Monday.

That is a sad tragedy.  But about  3,500 people dry from all causes of drowning in a year (mostly pools and bathtubs) and 110 people die from drowning at a beach or lake each year.  

Tragic, but that's not the odd part.  The odd part is from Tafari Campbell's Death Has Eerie Parallels With Clinton Chef Walter Scheib by James Bickerton.  

Campbell's death has parallels with that of Walter Scheib, an executive chef at the White House for 11 years under Bill Clinton and George W. Bush. Scheib drowned in June 2015 while hiking in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains near Taos, in New Mexico.

[snip]

Scheib, aged 61, was reported missing on June 16, 2015 by his girlfriend after setting off on what authorities believe was a fishing trip three days earlier.

His body was found "submerged in a mountain drainage flowing with surface runoff" about 25 yards from the Yerba Canyon trail. It was hidden from view by "dense vegetation and a steep, rocky decline."

Thunderstorms hit the area as Scheib made his way down the Lobo Peak mountain. Incident commander Richard Goldstein said that water had been "running very fast" due to the weather.

What are the odds that two White House chefs should drown outside?  The odds would seem to be astronomically low.  But they are not zero.  

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