Friday, June 9, 2023

Noise or signal? Seems like signal

Sometimes there will be a run of news items, all seemingly speaking to a similar issue.  This morning there are three that I saw.  The message seems to be that Americans are becoming more clear to poll takers that they hold traditional views on things like sex identity, cultural values, economic values, and equality before the law (i.e. no to affirmative action).  

Americans are increasingly conservative both in terms of social values and in terms of economics.

More than twice as many Americans are economically conservative as they are economically liberal.

More than twice as many Americans say considering race and ethnicity makes makes college admissions less fair rather than more fair

50% of Americans oppose affirmative action and only a third support it.

65% of Americans affirm there are only two sexes.  


The three reports and some of their key findings:


38% say they are conservative on social issues, up from 33% last year

Highest percentage saying they are socially conservative since 2012

44% say they are economically conservative, also highest since 2012

29% say their social views are very liberal or liberal down from 34% in each of the past two years

21% identify as very liberal or liberal on economic issues. 
50% of U.S. adults say they disapprove of selective colleges and universities taking prospective students’ racial and ethnic backgrounds into account when making admissions decisions. 

33% approve of colleges considering race and ethnicity to increase diversity at the schools

47% of beneficiaries of affirmative action say they approve of colleges and universities considering prospective students’ racial and ethnic backgrounds when making admissions decisions

By more than two-to-one, Americans say considering race and ethnicity makes makes college admissions less fair rather than more fair (49% less fair, 20% more fair)

By almost two-to-one, those without college degrees are more likely to disapprove than approve of selective colleges and universities considering race and ethnicity in admissions decisions (52% disapprove vs. 28% approve). 

In contrast, college graduates are about evenly split (45% approve, 47% disapprove).



In 2021, nearly six in ten Americans (59%) said there are only two gender identities, man and woman, and 40% of Americans believed there are many gender identities. 

In 2022, 62% of Americans believed that there are only two gender identities, and more than one-third (35%) said there are many gender identities. 

In 2023, with 65% saying there are two gender identities and 34% saying there are many.


All of which is heartening.  The two caveats are that surveys are pretty unreliable.  However, three surveys on three different matters, performed by three different organizations all seemingly picking up the same signal is perhaps significant.

Secondly, and of greatest concern - politicians and especially the clerisy (mainstream media, academia, NGOs etc.) hold views and values gravely divergent from the average (median, mean and mode) American and do not care that they are divergent.  They want their policy way, they are not interested in either what actually works nor are they interested in what the citizenry wants.  

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