Mystery vulnerability and super-spreaders

This highlights one of two mysteries which seem only now to be coming into focus. Whether the phenomena are real or not remains unproven. But from the anecdotal accounts I have been reading from across the world, there seem to be two phenomena. Whether they are related or not, I don't know.

The first phenomenon is that covered in The mystery of why the coronavirus kills some young people by Dr. Sanjay Gupta. As he notes:

It is true that Covid-19 seems to most seriously affect older people, particularly those with pre-existing conditions such as heart disease, lung disease and diabetes. It could be that an elderly person's immune systems may not be able to fight off the disease as well, and the virus can more easily replicate, overwhelming the body and causing multiple organ system failure.

And yet, as we start to look deeper and hear more stories, it is becoming apparent there are many people like Ben, who are younger and still get very sick and die.

And, it seems to me, quickly. It would appear that in select young, healthy individuals, the progression from mild distress to severe condition appears to be very rapid. An impression with no statistical backing.

The other phenomenon is the possible existence of rare super-spreaders. Examples from Georgia, Choir and Residential Care Facility.

In each of these instances, there is clearly the commonality of proximity and exposure. But, at least in the case of Georgia and with the choir, the exposure time is brief. In all three instances, there is an explosion of number of infections and number of deaths in a short time after the exposure at a greater speed, higher transmission and higher mortality than seems common elsewhere (for example the Diamond Princess cruise ship).

It is easy to spot outliers and make too much of them. But it does seem as if there is 1) some small portion of the young who might be especially vulnerable for currently unknown reasons and 2) some small portion of individuals who for unknown reasons (biological, genetic, medical, or behavioral) may be especially consequential in transmitting the disease.

Just two among the many unknowns.