Friday, September 13, 2019

In the social science, studies with higher methodological quality show weaker effect sizes.

From Testing the cycle of maltreatment hypothesis: Meta-analytic evidence of the intergenerational transmission of child maltreatment by Sheri Madigan.

From the Abstract:
It has long been claimed that “maltreatment begets maltreatment,” that is, a parent's history of maltreatment increases the risk that his or her child will also suffer maltreatment. However, significant methodological concerns have been raised regarding evidence supporting this assertion, with some arguing that the association weakens in samples with higher methodological rigor. In the current study, the intergenerational transmission of maltreatment hypothesis is examined in 142 studies (149 samples; 227,918 dyads) that underwent a methodological quality review, as well as data extraction on a number of potential moderator variables. Results reveal a modest association of intergenerational maltreatment (k = 80; d = 0.45, 95% confidence interval; CI [0.37, 0.54]). Support for the intergenerational transmission of specific maltreatment types was also observed (neglect: k = 13, d = 0.24, 95% CI [0.11, 0.37]; physical abuse: k = 61, d = 0.41, 95% CI [0.33, 0.49]; emotional abuse: k = 18, d = 0.57, 95% CI [0.43, 0.71]; sexual abuse: k = 18, d = 0.39, 95% CI [0.24, 0.55]). Methodological quality only emerged as a significant moderator of the intergenerational transmission of physical abuse, with a weakening of effect sizes as methodological rigor increased. Evidence from this meta-analysis confirms the cycle of maltreatment hypothesis, although effect sizes were modest. Future research should focus on deepening understanding of mechanisms of transmission, as well as identifying protective factors that can effectively break the cycle of maltreatment.
This is elaborated within the text:
The current study presents a series of comprehensive meta-analyses on the intergenerational transmission of maltreatment. Effect sizes for intergenerational transmission in the current series of meta-analyses were, albeit significant, small to moderate. Kaufman S. Zigler asserted that the "best estimate" of the rate of intergenerational transmission of maltreatment was approximately 30%. The majority (70%) of those maltreated as children did not become child perpetrators of maltreatment. Studies with higher methodological quality showed weaker transmission of physical abuse. One study that exemplifies methodological rigor in the field prospectively followed 902 children with documented cases of maltreatment having occurred with a matched comparison group for a period of approximately 40 years. The authors found that approximately 21% of parents with documented histories of maltreatment perpetrated some form of maltreatment toward their own children, compared to 11.7% of matched comparisons. Thus, being maltreated as a child puts an individual at risk of perpetuating maltreatment, but this association is far from deterministic. A limitation of the literature more generally is that research on the intergenerational transmission of maltreatment is correlational, and thus it cannot be inferred that maltreatment in one generation causes maltreatment in another. The current meta-analysis only confirms that an association is present.
Addresses a longstanding question of mine. I have read what appeared to be methodologically robust studies indicating that intergenerational transmission of abuse was real. I have also read what appeared to be methodologically robust studies indicating that children are astonishingly resilient to childhood abuse, exhibiting a spectacular capacity to suffer seemingly permanent trauma and then graduate into adulthood without obvious effect.

These two conclusions are not logically incompatible but they sit ill with one another. The crux of the matter, as is so often the case, is the red-haired step-child of sociological studies - effect sizes. A phenomenon can be real but of small impact. That there was precipitation yesterday may be beyond dispute but it matters whether it was a morning mist measured millimeters or a Hurricane Dorian measured in centimeters or even meters. Effect size matters and are too often undetermined or unexamined.

If this meta-analysis holds up, it resolves the paradox. Yes, intergenerational abuse transmission does occur but, owing to the resiliency of children, its effect size is about nine percent (21%-11.7% base rate).

And a second note which is a virtual refrain to all social sciences research:
Studies with higher methodological quality showed weaker transmission of physical abuse.
More generally, in the social science, studies with higher methodological quality show weaker effect sizes.

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