An MPI-MSM study

I mentioned yesterday in These irrationalities are primarily experienced as a mass hysteria phenomenon the book Connected by Nicholas Christakis.

When emotions spread from person to person and affect large numbers of people, it is now called mass psychogenic illness (MPI) rather than the old-fashioned and more poetic epidemic hysteria. MPI is a specifically social phenomenon involving otherwise healthy people in a psychological cascade. Like a single startled buffalo within a herd, a single emotional reaction in one person can sometimes cause many others to feel the same thing, creating an emotional stampede.

There are two main types of MPI. In the pure-anxiety type, people may feel a variety of physical symptoms, including abdominal pain, headache, fainting, shortness of breath, nausea, dizziness, and so on. In the motor type, people may engage in hysterical dancing, pseudoseizures, and—yes—laughing, though the actual feelings underlying these behaviors are fear or anxiety. Both types of MPI thus involve the same basic psychological processes.

I wonder if anyone has looked at MPI in the context of the mainstream media - to what extent are they not just a vector for MPI but also a genesis for MPI?

The reason it comes to mind is the procession of Dorian safely out to sea after easily ten days of constant coverage and chastisement to take the threat seriously. In the event, as is usual, the Caribbean Islands bore the brunt and as is common, the American coast had some strong winds.

Hurricane track forecasting is notoriously hard so I am not fussing about the accuracy of the forecast. In the early days it was going all over the place but as time proceeded and contextual meteorological conditions were factored in, the cone kept shifting away from the coast. They gave the best forecasts they could with the state of the art as it is.

But it just isn't all that robust. Separate from the forecast accuracy and the known need for caution, there was a drum beat of panicky reports of how bad things could be. Of course they could be bad. How bad are they likely to be is what people in the real world want to know but won't hear anything about.

There were mass coastal evacuations from Florida on up to South Carolina. Hurricane Dorian dominated the news for several consecutive days with innumerable breathless reporters and weatherpersons predicting the worst that could happen. And then it didn't.

Mass evacuations are a sensible precaution but when they occur (with all the individual and personal costs that go with them) and then nothing happens, people are not going to pay attention next time. Authority and credibility are in limited supply and when it is squandered, it is not easily restocked.

We have all sorts of public policy and institutional incentives to drive an over-response. We have very few checks and accountabilities to take account of the costs which coerced actions load onto citizens.

The easiest thing to do would be to just tell people what the forecast is and the best recommendation of how to deal with it and leave the coercion off. But that leaves politicians exposed if 1) the hurricane is worse than anticipated or 2) people choose not to take it seriously and there are deaths.

I have no ready answer to the dilemma. I just recognize that it is one. The more people suffer costs for complying with a wrong forecast, the more jaded they become and the less likely they are to comply the next time.

And of course the MSM have even greater incentive to over-sell. They are hemorrhaging money and jobs and if it bleeds it leads. And in the absence of blood, they will lead with anything that seems novel, dangerous, or otherwise threatening.

With hurricane Dorian, across print and TV, it was hard not miss a desire that this would be a real one. The sotto voce need for catastrophe. There were clear allusions in some commentary to a desire that this might be a Katrina rerun where the administration could be bashed. And Dorian could not be mentioned without the requisite catechism of climate change (despite there being a declining trend line in major hurricanes).

After the prospect of tragedy and administration incompetence and compelling emotionalism attached to tragic hurricane photos, all we got was: ‘Thank goodness we were spared.’ Dorian leaves minor damage along Georgia coast. Thank goodness indeed.

But back to the MSM role in MPI though. This felt more like media spectacle than it did real reporting. This felt like MSM as an institution hooked on over-hyping. There is an increasing awareness of MSM as a factor in mass shootings and in suicide contagion.

I do not think I have ever seen any systematic story of MSM reporting/advocacy in terms of measurable and demonstrated MPI yet it seems that there has to be one. There are many stories which are known to be false and yet because they are believed by the denizens of the MSM, they keep reemerging, zombie-like to once again have to be put down.

Ones I can think of off the top of my mind for the past couple of weeks include repeated claims of Trump's support of Nazis at Charlottesville, the thoroughly discredited association of the Tea Party with racism, and the continuing belief in an illusory gender income gap.

An MPI-MSM study would be very interesting.