Reading by the numbers

From Jordan Weissmann, The Simple Reason Why Goodreads Is So Valuable to Amazon. He references research from the Codex Group who are the source of the following three graphs.

The first chart looks at who reads how much. These numbers are broadly consistent with our own TTMD research where we have estimated that 10% of the population reads about 80% of the books in a year, averaging 24 books per year. 40% of the population read the remaining 20% of books, averaging 6 books a year. 50% do no elective reading in a year. Codex puts the intense readers at 20% of the population, reading 80% of the books and 40% reading 20%.



Where do they find the books they are reading?


For all the talk about social networks, recommendation sites, etc. I think it is notable that 1) there is a 45% black hole in our knowledge, and 2) only ~15% of book purchases arise from online booksellers and social media.

Not only do online sources represent a small part of the market, they also have a very low yield rate.



It is an industry in turmoil with all business models under threat and with a corresponding opportunity for anyone who can figure out how to make money from connecting highly variable consumers to the books they are most likely to enjoy.

The low yield rate stretches beyond the web.

30-40% of books published are returned to publishers unsold.

According to the Jenkins Group, 30% of books purchased are never read, 30% are started but not finished and only 40% of books purchased are read to the end.

So:
1) The percent of the public who are enthusiastic readers are only 10-20% of the population and they consume about 80% of all books.
2) 50% of the population does no elective reading.
3) Only 40% of books purchased are read start to finish.
4) 30% of books printed are unsold.

These are huge inefficiencies. So large that at some point we will get to a better process. Commerce is like biological life and the process of evolution; it is good at generating variations and killing off those models that don't work. We currently have a lot of commercial mortality which is evidence of rapid change.

The questions I ponder is whether the low percentage of enthusiastic readers is culturally determined, whether that concentration is a bad or good thing, whether there is something we can do about it, and if there is, what that something ought to be. My current answers are 1) I suspect so, 2) I suspect bad but can't prove it, 3) I hope so, and 4) I don't know.

All this is exacerbated by the fact that different cultural groups have distinctly different reading habits and values so whatever might be done regarding increasing a reading culture has to be done in a culturally heterogeneous environment.