Thursday, April 18, 2024

The easy answer? Cultivate values and behaviors.

From Social Movements and Public Opinion in the United States by Amory Gethin & Vincent Pons.  From the Abstract.

Recent social movements stand out by their spontaneous nature and lack of stable leadership, raising doubts on their ability to generate political change. This article provides systematic evidence on the effects of protests on public opinion and political attitudes. Drawing on a database covering the quasi-universe of protests held in the United States, we identify 14 social movements that took place from 2017 to 2022, covering topics related to environmental protection, gender equality, gun control, immigration, national and international politics, and racial issues. We use Twitter data, Google search volumes, and high-frequency surveys to track the evolution of online interest, policy views, and vote intentions before and after the outset of each movement. Combining national-level event studies with difference-in-differences designs exploiting variation in local protest intensity, we find that protests generate substantial internet activity but have limited effects on political attitudes. Except for the Black Lives Matter protests following the death of George Floyd, which shifted views on racial discrimination and increased votes for the Democrats, we estimate precise null effects of protests on public opinion and electoral behavior.

So protests generate zero impact on public opinion.  And I suspect the one exception (BLM) is just a lag issue.  BLM => Police Defunding => Rising Crime => Restoration of Policing.  

A couple of days ago I posted $11 billion spent (some of it being directly from taxes and most of it being indirectly from taxes) on helping 83,000 people with no measurable benefits achieved.   Social policies almost always fail, fail expensively, and many catastrophically.  

So the research indicates

Social movements don't change anything.

Social policies don't change anything.

That overstates it a bit.  But perhaps not by too much.  

Perhaps Heraclitus (2,500 years ago) had it right all along.

Character is destiny.

Again, overstating it a bit.  But perhaps not by too much.

You want progress.  Forget teachable moments, fundamental transformations, silver bullet policies, national conversations, and mass movements.  Cultivate values and behaviors.  

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