For more than a decade now, it has been obvious that the data robustness and integrity to support the AGW thesis is simply not there. In many instances, the data simply isn't there, in most cases it is not there in a form or fashion that permits the conclusions being drawn from it. The recognition of this failure is slowly gaining traction but there is too much money and vested interests in the status quo for the recognition to spread too swiftly. Yet.
Pielke has done some excellent granular work bringing this matter to greater attention and this is one such paper. The preprint paper is Scientific Integrity and U.S. “Billion Dollar Disasters” by Roger Pielke Jr.. From the Abstract:
For more than two decades, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has popularized a count of weather-related disasters in the United States that it estimates have exceeded one billion dollars (inflation adjusted) in each calendar year starting in 1980. The dataset is widely cited and applied in research, assessment and invoked to justify policy in federal agencies, Congress and by the U.S. President. This paper performs an evaluation of the dataset under criteria of procedure and substance defined under NOAA’s Information Quality and Scientific Integrity policies. The evaluation finds that the “billion dollar disaster” dataset falls comprehensively short of meeting these criteria. Thus, public claims promoted by NOAA associated with the dataset and its significance are flawed and misleading. Specifically, NOAA incorrectly claims that for some types of extreme weather, the dataset demonstrates detection and attribution of changes on climate timescales. Similarly flawed are NOAA’s claims that increasing annual counts of billion dollar disasters are in part a consequence of human caused climate change. NOAA’s claims to have achieved detection and attribution are not supported by any scientific analysis that it has performed. Given the importance and influence of the dataset in science and policy, NOAA should act quickly to address this scientific integrity shortfall.
No comments:
Post a Comment