Friday, May 20, 2022

Inflation since my grandfather's birth in 1899

My grandfather, Price Murray Bayless, was born in 1899 and died in 1970.  He worked for 32 years as a Sergeant in the Tulsa, Oklahoma police department, being severely injured in the line of duty (losing his leg) but still sufficiently resourceful to later capture a murderer armed only with his cane (for which he was recognized for his valorous service.)

In compiling a story of his life, I have been going through all the records I can find which, of course, includes the Census.  In 1940, as a Sergeant, he was earning $1,800 a year.  I used a currency calculator to arrive at the currency equivalent today ($37,000).  That is just the inflation adjusted equivalence.  Actual police sergeants in Tulsa today earn an average of $76,000 annually.  

In doing the currency conversion, the converter site includes the details of its calculation including the annual inflation rate per year from 1940 to today, 2022.  In those 82 years, there were only eight years when annual inflation was as high as today.  Three were during the war years of World War II and two were the Vietnam war spending compounded by the OPEC oil embargo of 1973-74 and three were the later Carter years.  

Interesting.

How about since he was born in 1899?  Four additional years with inflation greater than that today, all four being the war years and aftermath of World War I, 1917-1920.  

In the 123 years since my grandfather's birth, there have been 12 years of inflation greater than today.  Nine were associated with war spending (World War I, World War II, and Vietnam) and three with undisciplined deficit spending (Carter years).  

Hopefully, our current bout of inflation will not last longer than a year.  Since both establishment parties are undisciplined spenders, the prospects are not especially good, especially when the party controlling the White House, Senate, and House, is facing a perilous mid-term election.  They have had no policy successes to date and the only arrow left in their quiver is to spend more money despite the inflationary perils.  We'll see.

But looking at this history, it really makes me appreciate the relative financial stability of the past forty years.  Stability which we threw away with scarcely a second-thought.

USD inflation since 1899
Annual Rate, the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI











Click to enlarge.


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