If forecasting is not reliably accurate, the dependent decision-making cannot be reliable either.

 Excellent examples of systemic biases.  

Expert forecasts vs. reality pic.twitter.com/wLqX45r4cY

— Alexander Kruel (@XiXiDu) November 1, 2021

All these forecasters have excellent incentives to produce accurate and useful forecasts but they all are systemically erroneous.  They almost never catch inflection points.

10-Year Treasury Yield is systematically overestimated for the past twenty years.

Car traffic growth has also been consistently over-forecasted for the past thirty years. 

For the past fifteen years, solar capacity growth has been consistently underestimated. 

For 45 years, forecasts of human life expectancy were consistently below actual.  In the past five years, they are consistently above achieved life expectancy.  

 Any decisions on policy issues (Covid, AGW, UBI) are only as good as their integrated forecasts are reliable.  In many, perhaps most, the integrated forecasts are not reliable.  Without forecasts which are reliably accurate, there is little basis for making an expert decision.