Thursday, November 19, 2020

Find your classical liberal sources for useful information

 Another example of blogs and alternative sources of information now doing the reporting, or even simply asking the questions, which mainstream media no longer can be bothered to do.

From How did the Parties do in Relation to State Legislative Seats? by Seth Barrett Tillman.  He asks the question of the National Conference of State Legislatures and receives this response.

That number is always the last to pin down [and not yet final] and the one with the most ‘noise.’ Our current estimate is that Republicans netted at least 160 seats in the [2020] election. It is rare, but far from unprecedented, for the party winning the White House to lose seats in states. This is the 6th time that it has happened since 1960, and the most losses by the winning president’s party since then. In 1960, Democrats lost around 300 legislative seats even though John Kennedy won the White House. 

For context, there are 7,383 elected seats in State Legislative Chambers.  5,876 of those seats were up for election this cycle.  The difference reflects the fact that some States have staggered cycles.  It is analogous to the Federal Congress.  All Representatives run for reelection every two years whereas only about a third of Senators (with their six year terms) on the ballot in any given election cycle.

160 net seat changes over 5,876 contested seats is only about a 3% pick-up.  

But it is simply part of a national trend of party reversal.  The Democrats used to be the party of the people with very strong local machines, and a stronger presence locally than Republicans.  That has been in transition for nearly two, maybe three, decades now.  

The 2010 Democratic wipeout among state legislative seats and executive branch positions was a spike but also a trend.  

And this information from Tillman deepens the mystery of the 2020 election.  How could the top line ticket lose when the down-ticket elections were so stable or expansive?  

Time will tell.  The MSM certainly won't.  You have to get useful information elsewhere.


No comments:

Post a Comment