Just how much is it we don't know? 60%

I am not familiar with JustFacts as an information source but my first impression is positive. I came across an annual survey they do on the state of public knowledge on a range of public issues. Not opinion, knowledge. That is a refreshing focus just on its own.

Their surveying methodology is very transparent. They survey 700 people which is too low from my perspective but certainly within national polling norms. They report the margin's of error. They are attuned to subcategory error rates which is important and usually overlooked by most media outlets.

They ask 24 questions. Given the highly biased approach of most surveys, I approached with a high level of jaundiced skepticism and was instead pleasantly surprised.

The questions are straight, the explanations clear and the sourcing good. With only a couple of exceptions, they only claim certainty on topics where the research record is indeed highly consistent.

I agree with virtually all their answers and am familiar with their identified sources. This is mainstream stuff.

I got a couple of questions wrong but accept that their answers are correct. They were asking a specific question and I answered too generally.

There was only one question which I think was poorly framed. They ask Do you think Social Security’s financial problems stem from politicians looting the program and spending the money on other programs? to which they answer, No because by law Social Security funds are sequestered solely for Social Security use. And that is true. However, knowledge about fungibility of money when budgeting and doubts about the integrity of politicians keeping promises (i.e. paying back the SS funds borrowed) are perfectly reasonable concerns which would lead to a different answer.

Most surveys have a hidden bias which you need to uncover in order to answer well. Out of the 24 questions, four or five required a second read in order to be certain what they were asking, but overall they were bias free in framing and even the four or five requiring rereading was more due to complexity of the issue than an apparent bias.

For each question, voters were offered a selection of two or more answers, one of which was true. Voters also had the opportunity to say they were unsure.

On average, voters gave the correct answer 39% of the time, gave an incorrect answer 54% of the time, and said they were unsure 6% of the time. A majority of voters gave the correct answer to only 5 of the 24 questions.

The highest levels of misinformation were found on questions relating to child hunger, tax burdens, poverty, landfills, health insurance copayments, and two elements of Social Security finances. For these 7 questions, 75% or more of voters provided an incorrect answer.

I had to let this one sink in:

A majority of voters gave the correct answer to only 5 of the 24 questions.

A majority of voters can answer correctly only 20% of the questions?

But on reflection, that makes sense. Most of the questions are fair and pertinent to the subject but they are on a range of subjects which, while widely discussed, are not necessarily relevant to daily life. News junkies might carry as ready knowledge the relative tax burdens of the 1% versus the middle class, but how many people should we expect to current on that sort of knowledge? It is relevant and important esoteric knowledge, not useful quotidian knowledge.

They make this observation which I can vouch for, having read through the details of all the questions and responses.

Among 8 of the 10 questions in which the electorate was most deluded, the wrong answers they gave accorded with progressive storylines propagated by the media. Moreover, these answers were often far removed from reality, not just slightly mistaken.

For example, 79% of voters think that the middle class pays a greater portion of their income in federal taxes than the top 1%. Yet, the Congressional Budget Office, the U.S. Treasury, and the Tax Policy Center have all documented that households in the top 1% pay an average federal tax rate that is about 2.5 times higher than that of the middle class. More specifically, the latest Congressional Budget Office data on federal taxes shows that on average in 2016:

* middle-income households paid $10,100 in taxes on income of $75,900, or a tax rate of 13%.

* the top 1% of households paid $595,900 in taxes on income of $1,789,800, or a tax rate of 33%.

Nevertheless, media outlets commonly report the opposite based on deceptive studies that exclude large portions of people’s taxes and/or incomes. A remarkable 93% of Democrat voters have accepted this canard, as well as 65% of Trump voters.

It is a great example because it can be answered two ways and they take the more appropriate and more conservative approach.

It drives me crazy when politicians, in their never-ending pursuit of free money from others, demand that "the rich" pay their "fair share." Who are the rich and what is a fair share? Not infrequently the answer is that politicians consider everyone rich and think that most your income would constitute a fair share. They would never say that, but it is what they mean.

In this case, using effective income tax rates, which is the most appropriate measure, the 1% pay effective income tax rates which are two and a half times higher than the middle income citizen. Their tax rate is 250% higher. Fair is a subjective measure but clearly they are paying a lot more than everyone else.

Theo other approach is to consider what percent of federal revenue comes from which parts of the tax paying public. From memory, something like 50% of federal taxes are sourced from the 1%. Nearly half of citizens pay no net taxes. Put that way it seems even more dramatic how dependent we are on the rich.

There are lots of insights when you go through the materials. Take the first question, for example.

Question 1: Relative to other nations, how do you believe U.S. fourth graders rank in terms of their reading and math ability? Are they in the bottom 50% or in the top 50%?

Correct Answer: Top 50%. In international tests administered to students in dozens of nations, U.S. fourth graders rank in the top 30% of nations for reading and for math. Confusion about this issue may stem from the fact that the relative performance of U.S. students declines over time, and by the age of 15, they drop to the bottom 50% in reading and to the bottom 20% in math. This suggests that the problems of the U.S. education system may occur in the later years, not the early years, as many have claimed.

Correct answer given by 47% of all voters, 46% of Democrat voters, 48% of Trump voters, 46% of males, 48% of females, 53% of 18 to 34 year olds, 49% of 35 to 64 year olds, and 42% of 65+ year olds.

I am reasonably familiar with this body of international research and the answer provided is consistent with virtually all the research. What was striking to me was that everyone across their identified categories (age, gender, voting orientation) all basically shared the same body of knowledge. Nearly half having the right answer regardless of their category.

But there were plenty of others where there were dramatic differences in answers. One of the widest was:

Question 12: Again, thinking about the whole planet, do you think the number and intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms have generally increased since the 1980s?

Correct Answer: No. Comprehensive global data shows that the number and intensity of cyclones and hurricanes has been roughly level since the 1980s. This data was originally published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters in 2011 and updated this year. Likewise, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has reported: “There is low confidence in any observed long-term (i.e., 40 years or more) increases in tropical cyclone activity (i.e., intensity, frequency, duration), after accounting for past changes in observing capabilities.” Regional data that extends back for more than century shows the same. Nonetheless, media outlets have spread false claims to the contrary by cherry-picking anecdotes and reporting computer model predictions instead of hard facts.

Correct answer given by 32% of all voters, 4% of Democrat voters, 59% of Trump voters, 40% of males, 25% of females, 19% of 18 to 34 year olds, 36% of 35 to 64 year olds, and 30% of 65+ year olds.

All research I have seen confirms this and yet virtually every evening news show you see, CNN broadcast, NPR news, or print article operates from an article of faith that hurricanes and storms are becoming more intense. It is baked into their reporting even though it is wrong. Given that, it is easy to understand why two thirds of the public get this wrong.

But look at those ranges! Only 4% of Democrats know that storms are not getting worse whereas 59% of Trump supporters know.

Here's another wide range but where both parties are wrong. In fact, almost everyone is wrong.

Question 18: On an average day, what portion of U.S. households with children do you believe will have at least one child who experiences hunger? Less than 1%, 1% to 10%, or more than 10%?

Correct Answer: Less than 1%. Per the latest data from the USDA, 0.14% or less than one out of every 700 U.S. households with children have any child who experiences hunger on an average day. This includes children who are hungry due to poverty, not those who skip meals because they are late for school, don’t feel like eating, or are trying to lose weight.

Media stories claiming that child hunger is much more prevalent often falsely equate USDA data on “food insecurity” with “hunger.” Yet, the USDA explicitly states that “low food security” means “reports of reduced quality, variety, or desirability of diet” but “little or no indication of reduced food intake.” Prior to 2006, the USDA’s label for such households reflected this reality and was called “food insecurity without hunger.”

Correct answer given by 12% of all voters, 2% of Democrat voters, 22% of Trump voters, 15% of males, 9% of females, 3% of 18 to 34 year olds, 12% of 35 to 64 year olds, and 13% of 65+ year olds.

Only 12% of voters knew the correct answer. Granted, ten times more Trump voters knew the right answer than did Democrats but only a fifth of Trump voters got the right answer.

When you look at differences by sex, most answer within 5-10% of one another. There are only about half a dozen where there are 20-30% gaps. For example:

Question 15: Without government subsidies, which of these technologies do you think is the least expensive method for generating electricity? Wind turbines, solar panels, or natural gas power plants?

Correct Answer: Natural gas power plants. Determining the costs of electricity-generating technologies is complex, but data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that natural gas is considerably less expensive than wind, and wind is considerably less expensive than solar. Affordable energy has many important benefits, and for poorer people, it can mean the difference between life and death.

Correct answer given by 40% of all voters, 23% of Democrat voters, 57% of Trump voters, 53% of males, 29% of females, 25% of 18 to 34 year olds, 43% of 35 to 64 year olds, and 41% of 65+ year olds.

53 versus 29% correct. That's a 24% gap! Why? This seems like just a general knowledge issue and I can't come up with a compelling reason for such a large gap. Maybe it is a manifestation of the sociological things versus people construct.

Age categories in general don't vary all that much between older and middle. There is more of a gap on some questions between younger voters and middle/older but it still is not usually more than a 10% variance in correct answers.

Anyway, quite an interesting exercise. One way of looking at this is as a report card on mainstream media. How effective is the mainstream media in conveying facts to the general public? This suggests that the MSM receives a failing grade. Only 39% of the public are able to correctly identify the facts around topical issues. 60% answer incorrectly (54%) or are uncertain (6%).

To be provocative, this suggests that Trumps claim is true. The MSM are conveyers of fake news as evidenced by only 39% being able to correctly determine the factual answer on important topical issues.