Tuesday, June 18, 2019

The survey is saying something but not what the media is saying it says.

From We Blamed George W. Bush: NBC/WSJ poll suggests Trump is not especially partisan. by James Freeman.

Interesting. I have noted that despite the obloquy he generates, Trump hasn't done much that is out of line with any previous administration of either party. Indeed, for any given policy, you can pretty much across the board find relatively recent instances where both parties have pursued the policy in one form or another.

Freeman is pointing out something different.
Given the volume of commentary describing Donald Trump as a uniquely polarizing figure—and the amount of time Democrats spend attempting to end his presidency—one might think he is among the most partisan Presidents in our history. But that’s not the message in the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal survey.

Not that voters don’t give Mr. Trump a large share of the blame when asked who is responsible for “the partisanship that goes on in Washington.” In the June NBC/WSJ poll, 43% of respondents give the Trump administration “almost all” or “a major part” of the blame. When you consider that another 23% give Team Trump “at least half” the blame, it doesn’t seem to leave all that much room for other politicians. (The polling team doesn’t appear to have asked voters whether they blame themselves.)

In any case, survey respondents seem to hold Mr. Trump responsible for much of Washington’s partisanship. But as with so many other issues related to Mr. Trump, it’s instructive to evaluate him in comparison to other Presidents.

On that score, the Journal and NBC note that at the start of the Obama presidency, a full 56% of survey participants blamed the administration of President George W. Bush for “almost all” or “a major part” of Beltway partisanship. And another 25% gave Team Bush “at least half” the blame.

If Mr. Trump serves two terms, perhaps someday voters will eventually blame him just as much as they blamed the last Republican President. But already there are interesting parallels.

Just like Mr. Trump, Mr. Bush was duly elected but unfairly treated as illegitimate by many “progressive” Democrats. Also just like Mr. Trump, Mr. Bush was blamed by much of the press corps for some of his own failings as well as the failings of others.
I suspect that Trump is not only like Bush in this regard, but also like Obama and others at similar stages in their presidency.

We already know that Trump is more popular at this point than Obama was two years into his administration. Though, admittedly, much more ardently disliked as well.

Regrettably the data does not exist, or Freeman could not find it, but it would be interesting to see Obama's blame numbers for the same point in his administration. The fact that very early on he basically said he would not work with Republicans and would administer by regulatory edicts would suggest a case for polarization. The massive electoral reverses in both 2010 and 2014 would suggest that voters did indeed hold him blamable for polarization.

My point is not that Obama was polarizing, though I think there is a reasonable case for that argument. My point is that polls are saying something that is true for all Presidents. Two-years in to their administration, it appears that voters usually hold the President responsible for the tenor of debate.

If this is usually true, then it has nothing to do with the reality (or lack thereof) of polarization, or the actual actions of the sitting President. It is what we do. We blame the president. If true, then the polls are not telling us anything about Trump per se. They are telling us that he is a President at the two-year point. The stage of balamb=ability, perhaps. But we already know that.

But if there is a survey, the mainstream media has to get some mileage out of it to make it worthwhile having conducted. Whether it tells us something new and interesting or not.

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