Micro-climate change

Saw this tweet.

Temp in Indian region “increased by ~0.3 °C during the past three decades with the most accelerated warming (~0.9 °C) occurring during the recent decade (2001-2010). Our study shows that 25 to 50% of this observed overall warming is associated with LULC” https://t.co/hPxDyWkbqk

— Roger Pielke Jr. (@RogerPielkeJr) June 20, 2019

Which led me to the original paper. Land use and land cover change effect on surface temperature over Eastern India by Partha Pratim Gogoi, V. Vinoj, D. Swain, G. Roberts, J. Dash & S. Tripathy.

I have been arguing for some time that the attempt to use AGW for political ends has been a disaster for the environmental movement. In the past five years I have been arguing that there is one aspect of climate change which is worth investigating and pursuing from a policy perspective - micro-climate change. I have been accumulating evidence that Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes drive much more rapid, much more material, and much greater magnitude climate changes locally than does anything from the AGW angle. Who cares if there is a 0.1 degree change in AGW temperature a century from now if there has been a 1 degree change in my local area in the past decade owing to changes in the built environment, changes in agricultural practices, or changes in hydrological management.

From the Abstract:

Land use and land cover (LULC) change has been shown to have significant effect on climate through various pathways that modulate land surface temperature and rainfall. However, few studies have illustrated such a link over the Indian region using observations. Through a combination of ground, satellite remote sensing and reanalysis products, we investigate the recent changes to land surface temperature in the Eastern state of Odisha between 1981 and 2010 and assess its relation to LULC. Our analysis reveals that the mean temperature of the state has increased by ~0.3 °C during the past three decades with the most accelerated warming (~0.9 °C) occurring during the recent decade (2001 to 2010). Our study shows that 25 to 50% of this observed overall warming is associated with LULC. Further we observe that the spatial pattern of LULC changes matches well with the independently estimated warming associated with LULC suggesting a physical association between them. This study also reveals that the largest changes are linked to changing vegetation cover as evidenced by changes to both LULC classes and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Our study shows that the state has undergone an LULC induced warming which accounts for a quarter of the overall temperature rise since 2001. With the expected expansion of urban landscape and concomitant increase in anthropogenic activities along with changing cropping patterns, LULC linked changes to surface temperature and hence regional climate feedback over this region necessitates additional investigations.

One decade, 0.9 degree change, 25-50% due to LULC, and within that primarily due to changes in agricultural practice leading to changes in vegetative cover.

Very interesting.