Thursday, February 22, 2018

Productivity? Work with people like yourself and tell the truth

This looks interesting. From Preferences for Truth-Telling by Johannes Abeler, Daniele Nosenzo, and Collin Raymond. From the Abstract:
Private information is at the heart of many economic activities. For decades, economists have assumed that individuals are willing to misreport private information if this maximizes their material payoff. We combine data from 72 experimental studies in economics, psychology and sociology, and show that, in fact, people lie surprisingly little. We then formalize a wide range of potential explanations for the observed behavior, identify testable predictions that can distinguish between the models and conduct new experiments to do so. None of the most popular explanations suggested in the literature can explain the data. We show that only combining a preference for being honest with a preference for being seen as honest can organize the empirical evidence.
It is complex work with its limitations clearly articulated. The general finding is that people have a low level of lying and the reason they do not lie more is that they inherently value honesty and they also value being seen as honest.

A reason this work is interesting is that trust is a function of truth-telling and there is large, consistent economic literature linking trust with higher national and individual productivity. Abeler et al are not measuring trust per se but truth-telling, to some degree a necessary prerequisite to trust. It will be interesting to see how this research develops.

I think trust is materially a function of truth-telling AND shared assumptions. A proclivity towards non-truth-telling lowers trust. Absence of shared assumptions can also significantly reduce trust. Interactions in the absence of shared assumptions can lead to communication issues resulting in negative outcomes. Negative outcomes are often attributed to dishonesty when in fact they are a product of communication confusion.

You want higher national (and individual productivity)? Implement policies which improve the cultural value attached to honesty and reduce the knowledge/values variance between people.

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