Sunday, April 30, 2017

Step aside Edward Gibbon

As I have argued before, all complex systems are multi-causal and yet our thinking inclines deterministically towards mono- or dual causalism. X deterministically causes Y, or at best, X+Y causes Z. The reality is that almost always there are multiple causes with different weightings, interacting with one another in different fashions under different conditions. All are contributive but in often inexplicable or non-transparent ways.

And all human systems are complex.

This is brought to mind by this tweet:


Going to the source, it appears that A. Demandt in Der Fall Roms (1984) compiled a full list of hypotheses as to the root cause of the fall of Rome. He came up with 210 reasons people have proposed caused the fall. While I would not argue that all of these are contributive causes, I would be happy to make the argument that a good number of them are (in different proportions).

With one or two causes, it easy to create a usefully true heuristic: Don't admit barbarians into your borders; Maintain proper respect for religion and tradition; Ensure consent of the governed; Avoid debt, etc. But as soon as you acknowledge that many things had to go wrong in the right proportions, at the right time and in the right sequence, the ability to extract useful heuristics declines. Complexity challenges us. Life is a lot simpler when you only have to do one thing right, much more of a burden when you have to do many things right.

Here are the 210 proposed possible causes of the fall of Rome as reported by Demandt:
1. Abolition of gods
2. Abolition of rights
3. Absence of character
4. Absolutism
5. Agrarian question
6. Agrarian slavery
7. Anarchy
8. Anti-Germanism
9. Apathy
10. Aristocracy
11. Asceticism
12. Attack of the Germans
13. Attack of the Huns
14. Attack of riding nomads
15. Backwardness in science
16. Bankruptcy
17. Barbarization
18. Bastardization
19. Blockage of land by large landholders
20. Blood poisoning
21. Bolshevization
22. Bread and circuses
23. Bureaucracy
24. Byzantinism
25. Capillarite sociale
26. Capitals, change of
27. Caste system
28. Celibacy
29. Centralization
30. Childlessness
31. Christianity
32. Citizenship, granting of
33. Civil war
34. Climatic deterioration
35. Communism
36. Complacency
37. Concatenation of misfortunes
38. Conservatism
39. Capitalism
40. Corruption
41. Cosmopolitanism
42. Crisis of legitimacy
43. Culinary excess
44. Cultural neurosis
45. Decentralization
46. Decline of Nordic character
47. Decline of the cities
48. Decline of the Italian population
49. Deforestation
50. Degeneration
51. Degeneration of the intellect
52. Demoralization
53. Depletion of mineral resources
54. Despotism
55. Destruction of environment
56. Destruction of peasantry
57. Destruction of political process
58. Destruction of Roman influence
59. Devastation
60. Differences in wealth
61. Disarmament
62. Disillusion with stated goals of empire
63. Division of empire
64. Division of labor
65. Earthquakes
66. Egoism
67. Egoism of the state
68. Emancipation of slaves
69. Enervation
70. Epidemics
71. Equal rights, granting of
72. Eradication of the best
73. Escapism
74. Ethnic dissolution
75. Excessive aging of population
76. Excessive civilization
77. Excessive culture
78. Excessive foreign infiltration
79. Excessive freedom
80. Excessive urbanization
81. Expansion
82. Exploitation
83. Fear of life
84. Female emancipation
85. Feudalization
86. Fiscalism
87. Gladiatorial system
88. Gluttony
89. Gout
90. Hedonism
91. Hellenization
92. Heresy
93. Homosexuality
94. Hothouse culture
95. Hubris
96. Hypothermia
97. Immoderate greatness
98. Imperialism
99. Impotence
100. Impoverishment
101. Imprudent policy toward buffer states
102. Inadequate educational system
103. Indifference
104. Individualism
105. Indoctrination
106. Inertia
107. Inflation
108. Intellectualism
109. Integration, weakness of
110. Irrationality
111. Jewish influence
112. Lack of leadership
113. Lack of male dignity
114. Lack of military recruits
115. Lack of orderly imperial succession
116. Lack of qualified workers
117. Lack of rainfall
118. Lack of religiousness
119. Lack of seriousness
120. Large landed properties
121. Lead poisoning
122. Lethargy
123. Leveling, cultural
124. Leveling, social
125. Loss of army discipline
126. Loss of authority
127. Loss of energy
128. Loss of instincts
129. Loss of population
130. Luxury
131. Malaria
132. Marriages of convenience
133. Mercenary system
134. Mercury damage
135. Militarism
136. Monetary economy
137. Monetary greed
138. Money, shortage of
139. Moral decline
140. Moral idealism
141. Moral materialism
142. Mystery religions
143. Nationalism of Rome's subjects
144. Negative selection
145. Orientalization
146. Outflow of gold
147. Over refinement
148. Pacifism
149. Paralysis of will
150. Paralysization
151. Parasitism
152. Particularism
153. Pauperism
154. Plagues
155. Pleasure seeking
156. Plutocracy
157. Polytheism
158. Population pressure
159. Precociousness
160. Professional army
161. Proletarianization
162. Prosperity
163. Prostitution
164. Psychoses
165. Public baths
166. Racial degeneration
167. Racial discrimination
168. Racial suicide
169. Rationalism
170. Refusal of military service
171. Religious struggles and schisms
172. Rentier mentality
173. Resignation
174. Restriction to profession
175. Restriction to the land
176. Rhetoric
177. Rise of uneducated masses
178. Romantic attitudes to peace
179. Ruin of middle class
180. Rule of the world
181. Semieducation
182. Sensuality
183. Servility
184. Sexuality
185. Shamelessness
186. Shifting of trade routes
187. Slavery
188. Slavic attacks
189. Socialism (of the state)
190. Soil erosion
191. Soil exhaustion
192. Spiritual barbarism
193. Stagnation
194. Stoicism
195. Stress
196. Structural weakness
197. Superstition
198. Taxation, pressure of
199. Terrorism
200. Tiredness of life
201. Totalitarianism
202. Treason
203. Tristesse
204. Two-front war
205. Underdevelopment
206. Useless eaters
207. Usurpation of all powers by state
208. Vain gloriousness
209. Villa economy
210. Vulgarization

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