Are they taking the mickey out of the surveyers?

I have been seeing a lot of this in the past few years. A material change in what would normally be seen as a bedrock belief not likely to be subject to significant swings over time.

In this case, Pew is reporting trends in beliefs about human evolution by party affiliation. In this article, Pew is trying to explain why there might be such a large swing among Republicans (a eleven point decline in four years).

Click to enlarge.

I don't find it credible that in four years, absent some huge change in culture, or education or some other event, that a bedrock belief in something such as evolution would change very significantly. I find it doubly hard to believe in this instance as the years being compared are 2009 and 2013. While partisanship might be up in that period, there is nothing I am aware that would indicate that the culture wars of the eighties have flared back up, or that there has been a resurgence in fundamentalist beliefs. The reverse in fact. So why such a big change?

And this isn't really about a belief in evolution. I have seen it across multiple issues such as capital punishment, gun ownership, value of education, etc. Surveys show large swings in core beliefs where you would expect stability.

I think a big part of the issue is simply the fact that for fundamental beliefs, it is hard to ask meaningful questions about complex beliefs and that consequently the results are subject to misinterpretation.

I wonder, though, whether there is something else going on. There is such a large and deep divide between the clerissy and the general population on most issues, I wonder if the general population might not be doing some signalling of their own, regardless of their beliefs. In other words, is the general population, not trusting universities, intellectuals, advocates and the press, giving false answers to those who are doing the survey? Particularly when you take into account some of the long established bias issues which are well known when conducting surveys.

In the period 2009-2013, I don't sense big changes in education or belief systems, etc. That seems an unlikely source for the change in the numbers. What is well documented in that period, is an accelerating fall in public trust in institutions such as government, politicians, teachers, universities, the press, etc., all vying for whom is least trusted. Perhaps that is the motif force.