It’s the time frame of the last 300 years that doesn’t look so good

A blog post, *The Tragedy of Liberation* by Tyler Cowen

He makes the comment

And as I am wont to say, China’s prospects and fundamentals look pretty good if you scrutinize the country’s history over the last 30 or also the last 3000 years. It’s the time frame of the last 300 years that doesn’t look so good.

I agree with him based on historical facts.

I think the comment is interesting though in that it emphasizes the importance of perspective in argument making. We seek patterns in information which will allow us to make useful predictions of what is likely to happen. All three time frames, 30 years, 300 years and 3,000 years are perfectly legitimate but you get different answers depending on which you choose. For purposes of making predictions, can you select only one perspective, and if so, how do you justify that particular perspective. If you acknowledge all three to be legitimate, then you loose your pattern for prediction purposes.