Friday, July 12, 2013

Computer simulations give you exquisitely precise unreliable results

From Causal Density In Statistical Models Yields Unreliable Results by Paul M. Jones, quoting Arnold Kling.
When there are many factors that have an impact on a system, statistical analysis yields unreliable results. Computer simulations give you exquisitely precise unreliable results. Those who run such simulations and call what they do “science” are deceiving themselves.
Not only statistical analysis but even such old stand bys as root-cause-analysis can get tricky where there is causal density.

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