While their numbers are certainly wrong, given the weakness of the underlying data, they at least provide a ballpark estimate. I am also reasonably sceptical of the comparability of the data they use for comparing US versus other countries (Program for International Student Assessment, PISA).
McKinsey's themes are limited, undramatic and straight-forward: better data is required, funding is an issue, minorities are ill-served and schools are important. They properly emphasize that there are reasons for optimism and that there are plenty of avenues to explore that hold out the prospect for material progress.
The weakness of the report, from my perspective, relates to the international comparisons as mentioned above; the disconnect between the supposed comparisons and the economic productivity of the US (if the US has been performing so dismally on education for the past 30 years, how is it that the US economy has performed so comparatively well versus the nominal educational superstars?); and finally, the dearth of recommendations (how do you optimize results within the constraints of the US circumstances?) The report is a worthwhile addition to the overall literacy and education literature. There were a couple of insights that you won't see anywhere else such as:
As a rule, schools in poor neighborhoods spend far less per pupil than schools in their nearby affluent suburbs. Since teacher salaries are one of the biggest components of district cost structures, affluent districts routinely outbid poorer ones for the best teaching talent (in addition to offering typically better working conditions and easier-to-teach children).
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