Data Talks

Total amount wagered on sports in the US...
2024: $148.7 billion
2023: $121.1 billion
2022: $93.7 billion
2021: $57.5 billion
2020: $21.5 billion
2019: $13.1 billion
2018: $6.6 billion https://t.co/qHWsZ4rK5X

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) November 6, 2025

 

Miner's Houses, Canmore, 1944 by Henry George Glyde (England/Canada, 1906-1998)

Click to enlarge.

Mass shootings are rare in Australia - By the numbers

I am reading this morning of the tragic apparent Islamist terrorist attack in Australia at Bondi Beach in Sydney, targeting a group of people celebrating the start of Hanukkah.  I lived in Sydney for five and a half years and have many friends there, including Jewish friends and friends who live near Bondi Beach.  I have reached out to them in the prayerful hope that none have been directly affected.

At this point, there appeared to have been 17 murdered by the terrorists.  

When we moved to Australia in 1997, there had just the prior year been a horrific attack at Port Arthur in Tasmania in which 35 people were killed.  In the wake of that attack, Australia passed a comprehensive package of laws substantially reducing/eliminating private gun ownership 

I am seeing numerous headlines or accounts referring to how rare mass murders of this sort are in Australia.  For example, from The New York Times:

Mass shootings are rare in Australia, a country with strict gun laws and one of the lowest gun-related death rates among wealthy nations.

Which of course prompted the question in my mind, How often are there mass killings of this sort in Australia and how does that compare to the US?  I know of Port Arthur and now of Bondi Beach.  Were there others before Port Arthur that I didn't know about or some since I left in 2002 that I somehow overlooked?  

Turning to Grok:

In what years since 1985 has Australia had a mass shooting with 15 deaths or more?

Searching the web

35 results

Since 1985, Australia has had two mass shootings with 15 or more deaths:

1996: The Port Arthur massacre, where Martin Bryant killed 35 people and wounded 23 others at a tourist site in Tasmania. This remains the deadliest mass shooting in modern Australian history and led to major national gun law reforms, including bans on semi-automatic rifles and shotguns, plus a large-scale buyback program.

2025: A shooting attack on December 14 at Bondi Beach in Sydney, targeting a Hanukkah event, resulted in at least 15–16 deaths (reports vary slightly between 15 and 16 victims, excluding or including perpetrators) and dozens injured. Multiple sources describe this as the deadliest mass shooting in Australia since 1996.

No other incidents since 1985 meet the threshold of 15 or more deaths. Prior to 1996, Australia had several mass shootings (often defined as 4–5 or more fatalities), but none since then reached this scale until the 2025 event. Studies confirm no comparable mass shootings occurred in the decades following the 1996 reforms until now.

Grok seems to confirm what I already believed I knew.  Two mass murder incidents (greater than 15 murdered victims) since 1985.  In 1985 Australia had about 16 million people and in 2025 it has a population of roughly 28 million, a near doubling in forty years, much of it driven by immigration.  

Very crudely then, they have two mass murder events over 40 years per an average of 22 million (44/2) people.  One attack every 20 years.  Alternatively, one attack per 11 million over forty years.  

The perpetrator of the Port Author attack had a history of mental illness.  At this point (still early) it appears that the Bondi Beach attack was an Islamist terror attack.  

What about the US?

Grok:

In what years since 1985 has the US had a mass shooting with 15 deaths or more?

Searching the web

36 results

Browsing web page

2 results

The United States has experienced mass shootings with 15 or more fatalities (excluding the perpetrator's death, if applicable) in the following years since 1985, based on widely referenced lists of deadliest incidents (such as those compiled from Wikipedia's curated rankings of high-fatality shootings and cross-referenced databases):

1991: Luby's cafeteria shooting in Killeen, Texas (23 deaths)

2007: Virginia Tech shooting in Blacksburg, Virginia (32 deaths)

2009: Fort Hood shooting in Fort Hood, Texas (14 deaths, though sometimes listed with adjustments; included here per some compilations, but borderline)

2012: Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting in Newtown, Connecticut (27 deaths, including 26 victims plus perpetrator suicide)

2015: San Bernardino attack in San Bernardino, California (16 deaths)

2016: Pulse nightclub shooting in Orlando, Florida (49 deaths)

2017: Las Vegas Strip shooting in Paradise, Nevada (60 deaths)

2018: Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School shooting in Parkland, Florida (17 deaths)

2019: El Paso Walmart shooting in El Paso, Texas (23 deaths)

2022: Robb Elementary School shooting in Uvalde, Texas (21 deaths)

2023: Lewiston shootings in Lewiston, Maine (18 deaths)

No such incidents (15+ deaths) occurred from 1985–1990, 1992–2006, 2008, 2010–2011, 2013–2014, 2020–2021, or 2024–2025 (as of December 14, 2025). Note that definitions of "mass shooting" vary across sources (e.g., public vs. all incidents, minimum victims killed vs. shot), but high-fatality events like these are consistently tracked in deadliest lists due to their scale. Sources exclude gang-related or domestic-only violence in some stricter public mass shooting criteria, but the above align with broad consensus on indiscriminate or public rampages reaching this threshold.

38 web pages

Again, this accords with my recollections.  I had forgotten about Luby's and had overlooked Lewiston.  

Eleven mass murder incidents (greater than 15 murdered victims) since 1985.  In 1985 the US had about 240 million people and in 2025 it has a population of roughly 340 million a 40% increase in forty years, much of it driven by immigration.  

Very crudely then, the US has eleven mass murder events over forty years per (580/2) 290 million people.  One attack every 3.5 years.  Alternatively, on a population basis, one attack per 26 million over forty years.  

Australia has 2.4 times as many mass murder attacks per million people over 40 years compared to the US, despite its virtual prohibition of private guns.  

In Australia, one attack was by a perpetrator with mental health history and one by Islamist terrorists.

How about the US Grok?

And of those eleven shootings, how many were linked in some way to Islam?

Searching the web

63 results

Of the eleven mass shootings listed (with 15 or more fatalities since 1985), three were linked to Islam through the perpetrators' radicalization, motivations, or affiliations with Islamist extremism:

2009 Fort Hood shooting (13 victims killed, perpetrator survived initially): Perpetrated by Nidal Hasan, a Muslim U.S. Army major who shouted "Allahu Akbar" during the attack, communicated with radical cleric Anwar al-Awlaki, and expressed jihadist views opposing U.S. military actions in Muslim countries. It is widely classified as an act of Islamist-inspired terrorism.

2015 San Bernardino attack (14 victims killed): Carried out by Syed Rizwan Farook and Tashfeen Malik, a Muslim couple radicalized by Islamist ideology. Malik pledged allegiance to ISIS on social media during the attack, and the FBI classified it as an act of terrorism inspired by a perverted interpretation of Islam.

2016 Pulse nightclub shooting (49 victims killed): Perpetrated by Omar Mateen, a Muslim who pledged allegiance to ISIS during 911 calls amid the attack. The FBI and authorities classified it as ISIS-inspired Islamist terrorism, though investigations found no direct operational ties to the group.

The remaining eight incidents (1991 Luby's, 2007 Virginia Tech, 2012 Sandy Hook, 2017 Las Vegas, 2018 Parkland, 2019 El Paso, 2022 Uvalde, and 2023 Lewiston) had no documented links to Islam or Islamist motivations; perpetrators' backgrounds and motives were unrelated (e.g., personal grievances, mental health issues, or other ideologies). Note that "linked in some way" here focuses on perpetrator radicalization or ideological motivation tied to Islam, per consensus from official investigations and reliable sources. Definitions of terrorism and motivation can vary slightly across databases, but these three are consistently identified as Islamist-related among high-fatality U.S. mass shootings.

63 web pages

Again, matches my memory though I note small numerical discrepancies between its first and second answers, almost certainly definitional in nature.  

Three out of eleven, clearly Islamist, 27%

Now what about those with a documented history of mental illness?

And of the remaining eight shootings how many involved known or previously documented mental health issues.

Searching the web

99 results

Of the remaining eight mass shootings with 15+ fatalities (1991 Luby's, 2007 Virginia Tech, 2012 Sandy Hook, 2017 Las Vegas, 2018 Parkland, 2019 El Paso, 2022 Uvalde, and 2023 Lewiston), seven [NB the actual list count is 6 out of 8] involved perpetrators with known or previously documented mental health issues, based on official investigations, court records, family statements, and reliable reporting:

2007 Virginia Tech (Seung-Hui Cho): Extensive documented history, including diagnoses of selective mutism/anxiety in childhood, major depression, involuntary commitment in 2005, and ongoing mental health evaluations/treatment gaps noted in the official review panel report.

2012 Sandy Hook (Adam Lanza): Long-term developmental and mental health issues (including sensory processing disorder, anxiety, obsessive-compulsive tendencies, and possible undiagnosed autism spectrum traits); received special education and psychiatric evaluations, though treatment lapsed in later years per the Connecticut Office of the Child Advocate report.

2018 Parkland (Nikolas Cruz): Extensive record of behavioral/mental health concerns from childhood, including ADHD, depression, autism evaluations, multiple therapies, special education placements, and threat assessments; received intermittent treatment but gaps persisted.

2019 El Paso (Patrick Crusius): Defense filings and court records cite severe lifelong neurological/mental disabilities (later specified as schizoaffective disorder with psychotic features); treated with antipsychotics post-arrest and described as in a psychotic state.

2022 Uvalde (Salvador Ramos): Reports indicate struggles with isolation, bullying, family dysfunction, and behavioral issues; while no formal diagnosis or treatment history was officially documented pre-incident, experts and investigations noted profiles consistent with untreated mental health crises common in similar cases.

2023 Lewiston (Robert Card): Well-documented acute deterioration, including auditory hallucinations, paranoia, two-week psychiatric hospitalization in 2023, traumatic brain injury from military service, and family/military alerts about his crisis.

The exceptions are:

1991 Luby's (George Hennard): Described as a troubled loner with paranoia and anger issues; no evidence of formal diagnoses, treatment, or documented mental health evaluations.

2017 Las Vegas (Stephen Paddock): No confirmed diagnosis or treatment history; some speculation (e.g., family mentions of possible paranoia or doctor's unconfirmed bipolar suspicion), but official investigations found no documented mental illness.

"Known or previously documented" here refers to formal evaluations, diagnoses, treatments, hospitalizations, or official alerts (e.g., family/military reports leading to intervention). While mental health factors are complex and not causative alone, these details come from investigations, court proceedings, and expert analyses. Note that stigma and access gaps often limit full documentation in such cases.

In the US, 27% of such attacks are by Islamists, 55% are by those with a documented history of mental illness and 18% are by individuals without documentation of their condition but with suspected mental health issues.  

Mass murder attacks like this are rare, even rarer in small countries like Australia.  So rare that even with a forty-year window, it is not correct to make comparisons because of the smallness of the set size.  

But it is worth noting that mass lethal shootings, despite the NYT claim, are rarer in the US on a population basis than in Australia and happen more often on population per decade basis in Australia.  The NYT times claim is not tenable.  

Australia's results are especially notable given how distinctly different are their gun laws from those of the US.

History

On the ancient shores of the Red Sea, buried in desert sands for over 4,500 years, archaeologists uncovered something no one thought could survive — a bundle of fragile papyri now known as The Diary of Merer. These scrolls are the oldest written papyri ever found, and they tell… pic.twitter.com/fsOqsTs9Qf

— Archaeo - Histories (@archeohistories) November 7, 2025

 

An Insight

A massive, gaping intellectual blind spot I have noticed is social-class politics and hostility *within* the Western world and Western populations. For example, it's obvious Western elites see the Western masses as a subhuman race, but I rarely see anyone dig deeper into this. https://t.co/GrrrATdCKH

— Marko Jukic (@mmjukic) November 6, 2025

 

I see wonderful things

“Yeah so basically my ideology is raising taxes on people working here to pay for BMWs for people with anxiety”

pic.twitter.com/dFL1lWf0Gw

— Adam Wren (@G0ADM) November 7, 2025

 

Offbeat Humor

New: Police Respond to Suspicious Activity Call — Man Riding Bull Through Walmart Parking Lot

Officers were dispatched after a caller reported a “male with a cowboy hat riding a whitish bull up and down the parking lot” outside a Walmart.

When officers arrived, they located… pic.twitter.com/aiNB2idDGS

— The Facts Dude 🤙🏽 (@Thefactsdude) November 7, 2025

 

Data Talks

I've so far documented 196 ghost stations where NOAA fabricates temperatures for data recording stations that no longer exist. There are many more yet to document. Find them at #NOAAghoststation pic.twitter.com/Pn6IRmu8xB

— John Shewchuk (@_ClimateCraze) November 6, 2025

 

The Witchery of the Moonbeams by Edward Henry Potthast

The Witchery of the Moonbeams by Edward Henry Potthast (America, 1857-1927)

Click to enlarge.

Their primary commitment is to a belletristic, literarist, romantic promotion of elite cultural sensibilities

The New Yorker has drifted far from the James Thurber and E.B. White days.  

Bombshell: Oliver Sacks (a humane man & a fine essayist) made up many of the details in his famous case studies, deluding neuroscientists, psychologists, & general readers for decades. The man who mistook his wife for a hat? The autistic twins who generated multi-digit prime…

— Steven Pinker (@sapinker) December 12, 2025

In the past decade or so, I can think of at least three of their writers who have gotten into hot water for plagiarism, misquoting or loose ways with the truth.  Fine essayists all but of little help in navigating an increasingly chaotic epistemic world.  Jonah Lehrer, Malcom Gladwell and now . . . Oliver Sacks.

They were soft pablum entertainment but of little help in the pursuit of truth.  Well, that's not strictly true.  I have commented in other posts that Gladwell has been useful in cultivating skepticism.  He writes so seductively that you have to always maintain an alert mind to what camel is being slipped into the tent without your noticing.  

Malcolm Gladwell I have always enjoyed.  A fine essayist and at least a catalyst for thinking through why some of his claims might not be accurate.  Lehrer I enjoyed but only discovered him just before he fell.  

Oliver Sacks was in a different category.  He has been held out as a superb essayist and fine clinician dealing in interesting areas of the human brain/psychology.  And yet I never have taken to him at all, either in the magazine or with his books.  Over the years I have acquired at least three (An Anthropologist on Mars, Oaxaca Journal, and The Island of the Colorblind) and maybe one or two others (I think I have The Man Who Mistook His Wife for a Hat floating around somewhere.)  Haven't read more than an essay in any one of them.  

I buy them, sample them and then set them aside.  Plenty of books don't grab me at first but later, at the right moment, I engage with and enjoy.  Reading is a serendipitous activity and sometimes you just have to wait for the moment.  And sometimes, the moment never comes.

But all of them, Gladwell, Lehrer, Sacks, now seen to be purveyors of cognitive pollution of the first order.

Pinker in his series of tweets:

Why did The New Yorker, which perpetuates the myth that they employ an army of meticulous fact-checkers,  pollute our understanding of mind and brain by publishing these fabrications for decades?

Because their primary commitment is to a belletristic, literarist, romantic promotion of elite cultural sensibilities over the tough-minded analyses of philistine scientists and technologists, their rival elite (carrying on C. P. Snow's war of prestige between "the two cultures). A common denominator behind Sacks's fabrications was that ineffable, refined intuition can surmount cerebral analysis, which is limited and cramped. It's a theme that runs through some of their other blunders, such as a fatuous diatribe against a dictionary based on a modern understanding of language, by their dance critic Joan Acocella, an ignoramus on this topic, mirroring a similar polemic by the critic Dwight MacDonald in the magazine 50 years before.  

Sounds about right.  A cultivated sensibility that is more about class inclusion than understanding the world.