With the rise of these amateur weapons, the new balance of military power was much more widely distributed

From Why the bureaucrats won’t be toppled Revolts no longer work by Ben Landau-Taylor.  It is an interesting argument.  I am not sure I completely buy it but I suspect there is an useful insight in there somewhere.

In Weapons Systems and Political Stability, the master historian Carroll Quigley explained that a society’s form of government is downstream of the balance of military force. When the best weapons system requires expensive equipment used by highly-trained specialists, like a medieval knight with his horse and lance and heavy armour, this concentrates military power into the hands of a small group. On the other hand, when the best weapons system is cheap and can be used effectively by amateurs with relatively little training — for example, muskets or rifles — military power is spread more evenly throughout the population.

…By the late 1700s, guns became widely affordable. With the rise of these amateur weapons, the new balance of military power was much more widely distributed, so over the 1700s and 1800s, revolts and reforms throughout Europe and the Americas shifted political power towards the people.

…In the 20th century, this phase ended. The weapons system based on amateur-friendly guns was supplanted by a series of weapons systems based on specialist equipment like airplanes and tanks and rockets.

…The 20th century decline of popular military power, then, led to the gradual but thorough transfer of power from elected representatives, who are somewhat constrained by the popular will, to bureaucracies and agencies able to act however they wish. In other words, within Western states which describe themselves as democracies, the people — the demos — have lost much of their power — their kratos. Elections have become less important in determining the government’s policy, and more ceremonial.