Commenters provide evidence

From Still under-policed and over-imprisoned by  Alex Tabarrok.  Tabarrok is referencing a new paper which supports the argument he has long made which is that, compared to other developed nations, the US has dramatically fewer police than others do and we convict more.  

It is an intriguing argument.  I have lived and worked in a number of other developed nations and can muster anecdotal support both for and against the argument.  My general sense is that authorities elsewhere are more intrusive on individual actions than in the US. 

A few years ago I dug into the numbers to see if I could find good support for the position.  I quickly found the definitional issues daunting.  Who has what authority over whom is surprisingly complex.  I never got to a point where I was sufficiently confident in the numbers to conclude that the US is either over- or under-policed.  

This post does not change my mind.

But I did like this exchange in the comments.  Marginal Revolution in general has among the better commenters out there that I have come across.  Often good points are raised and pertinent information brought forward.

The opening claims was:

supplied_demand 2022-08-17 12:00:23

Why has crime surged in places that didn't "defund the police"? Plenty of large, Republican-led cities saw large increases in crime (Jacksonville, Miami, OKC, Ft. Worth, etc.). Would you suggest their policies blew up in their face?

OK.  Now de-policing occurred in many cities regardless of whether there was defunding of the police.  But I am taking with the claim that there are many Republican led cities.  And that they had surges in crime as did the big blue cities which had either defund the police policies or simply implemented de-policing policies.  

Jacksonville, Miami, OKC, Ft. Worth are the candidates to be identified as Republican-led.  While a tiny list, it is at least plausible.

Let's start with Ft. Worth.  Is it a Republican-led city government?  This suggests no; that it leans slightly left.  Same with Jacksonville.  Oklahoma City apparently does lean conservative.  Miami more solidly leans liberal.  

Of the four cities cited as Republican-led, apparently three of them are led by Democrats.  Or, at least, three of them have democratic majority electorates.  

OK.  supplied_demand isn't off to a great start in terms of his claim.  He identified four Republican led big cities and three of them appear to be Democrat led.  

Now what about their crime rates?  Did they, as supplied_demand claims, have an increase in crime?  One of the other commenters provides at least part of the answer.  

Floccina 2022-08-17 12:43:06

"Miami-Dade County's murder rate dropped in 2021, going against trends in other major cities across the country where murders rose to levels not seen in decades. Figures released by the medical examiner's office this week showed Miami-Dade had 249 murders in 2021, a decrease of 41 from 2020, or about a 15% drop. Jan 12, 2022"  https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/miami-dade-murder-rate-dropped-in-2021-by-nearly-15/2659716/

supplied_demand is really not doing particularly well with his argument.  Republican-led Miami is supposed to have had an increase in crime but the electorate leans Democrat and it has had a 15% decline in crime.  

Jacksonville is also down.  Fort Worth is up.  In Oklahoma City, murders are up but overall crime is down.  

supplied_demand made the argument that Jacksonville, Miami, OKC, and Ft. Worth were all Republican-led cities and that was incorrect.  He then argued that all four cities saw an increase in crime even though they had not defunded their police.  This was also wrong.  Two of the cities had a decline in crime.  One had a rise in crime and one had a rise in murder but a decline in all other crime.

supplied_demand's indirect argument was that there is a secular rise in violent crime in the US and that that is affecting all cities regardless of which party controls the local government.

The facts actually refute the argument.  Regardless of whether a local government leans left or right, it is in fact the choice of local policing policies which determines whether there is a rise or decline in crime, violent or property.

Cities where the local government, typically strongly influenced by the Democratic party, has defunded the police, undertaken to de-police, decarcerated their prisons and/or undertaken to reduce prosecutions and convictions have seen massive rises in crime, usually violent crime and often property crime as well.

Contrary to sepplied_demand's implied argument, policies do matter and crime is not an inherent condition but a choice.