Sunday, February 27, 2022

EU and European leadership?

Another observation arising from the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  Again, perhaps it is merely a function of my personal epistemic ecosystem.  

Clearly the governments of the west did not plan on how to respond to an actual invasion.  They must have anticipated it but the 24-72 hour window between the invasion and any sort of concerted response seems to indicate that anticipation had not been converted into advance planning.

But actions are now being taken including removing major Russian banks from SWIFT, freezing of foreign assets of those surrounding Putin, marshaling of supplies from European countries to be supplied to Ukraine, the activation of the NATO Rapid Deployment Force, etc.

What is striking to me is that these actions seem largely to be originating in Europe and particularly at the EU.  I have the impression of the EU taking a far more principled position than we are normally accustomed to it taking.  Individual countries such as Poland, Portugal, the Netherlands, and Sweden seem also to be taking leading positions in support of Ukraine in a fashion unfamiliar in the past.

The US has long argued that our European allies in NATO and the EU in general needed to shoulder more of the burden of defense preparedness.  Trump especially used the bully pulpit to get European countries to raise their military spending (though to somewhat dubious outcomes). 

Europe and European countries taking the lead on an international issue is not undesirable, just unexpected.  During the Bosnian War of the 1990s, the US, through NATO, took the lead despite this being a war in Europe.  Allies rallied around but often making things more complicated.  

With Ukraine, it feels like Europe is owning the issue and leading.  

The counterpart is: What is the US doing?  We seem to be supporting our European allies and I am guessing that there are backroom negotiations going on.  Perhaps we are a catalyst and it is an intentional outcome for the EU to be seen as leading the response.

Perhaps.  While delighted that the EU might raise its international game, I am concerned whether this administration simply might not be up to the task of responding to an international crisis.  We'll see if that concern ends up being justified.  Or, indeed, whether any of these observations are actually valid.

But interesting.

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