Virus Deaths Climb as Cases Hit New High" was the original title of a recent front-page Wall Street Journal feature, later changed online to "Deaths Begin Trending Higher." Either title portends important news, but the only evidence is gibberish: "The average daily death toll in the U.S. rose to 599 in the seven days through July 8, up from 510 deaths a day as of July 4, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of data from Johns Hopkins University."While the WSJ is editorially centrist to conservative, their actual reporters are pretty much like the rest of mainstream media - numerate-challenged.
July 4 is obviously one of the "seven days through July 8" so the alleged "rise" makes no sense. A correct apples-to-apples comparison would have said, "The average daily death toll in the U.S. fell to 599 in the seven days through July 8, down from 786 in the seven days through July 1." Those averages (599 and 786) are from the Wall Street Journal's own graph of "Daily reported Covid-19 deaths." But revealing the actual 35% drop in deaths over back-to-back seven-day periods would require rewriting the headline.
In a remarkable understatement, the article admits "deaths haven't surged in the same way the infections have." In fact, nationwide deaths have fallen according to all of their own figures.
The trend line of deaths is markedly downwards, interrupted by periodic lagged bursts arising from demonstrations. Over the life of the pandemic though, the correlation between deaths and cases has been weak and getting weaker.
Nobody knows what is going on. Maybe the numbers will show a strong week-on-week spike in deaths unassociated with mass protests. But the evidence is still very weak for that particular argument. Which doesn't stop the press from pushing a panic over an event that hasn't eventuated.
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