Offsetting behavioral responses

I would treat this conclusion cautiously simply because its granularity and temporal constraint outstrips the quality of the data. From Did President Trump's Tulsa Rally Reignite COVID-19? Indoor Events and Offsetting Community Effects by Dhaval M. Dave, Andrew I. Friedson, Kyutaro Matsuzawa, Drew McNichols, Connor Redpath, Joseph J. Sabia. From the Abstract.

On June 20, 2020, President Donald J. Trump held his first mass campaign rally following the outbreak of COVID-19. Held in Tulsa, Oklahoma, the political gathering attracted 6,000 to 12,000 individuals to the indoor Bank of Oklahoma (BOK) arena. This study is the first to explore the impact of this event on the spread of COVID-19. First, using data from Safegraph Inc, we show that while non-resident visits to census block groups hosting the Trump event grew by approximately 25 percent, there was no decline in net stay-at-home behavior in Tulsa county, reflecting important offsetting behavioral effects. Then, using data on coronavirus cases from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and a synthetic control design, we find no evidence that COVID-19 case growth grew more rapidly in Tulsa County, its border counties, or in the state of Oklahoma than each’s estimated counterfactual in the weeks following the campaign rally. Difference-in-differences estimates also provide no evidence that short-run COVID-19 case rates grew faster in counties that drew relatively larger shares of residents to the event. We conclude that offsetting behavioral responses to the rally — including voluntary closures of restaurants and bars in downtown Tulsa, increases in stay-at-home behavior and displacement of usual activities of weekend inflows, and smaller-than-expected crowd attendance — may be important mechanisms.

However, if true, it is important information. My inclination has been to view large gatherings as homogenous. I am still inclined that direction. But this does suggest that there may be a category error.

That large events with suitable protocols and offsetting behavioral responses might not be the health risk currently assumed.

The sharp rise in Covid-19 in cities with large, kinetic protests suggests the corollary is true as well - that dense, kinetic, events foster disease transmission.

The key point is that there are grounds for possibly distinguishing large public events.