Things are complex, our knowledge incomplete, our experience limited.

From Stuff I Was Wrong About! by Razib Khan. Some reversals we share, some others, not. Interesting none-the-less.

An example:

I used to think group selection was totally incoherent, but now think that is very useful in understanding cultural evolution, and perhaps in some other contexts. I probably fundamentally changed my mind between 2010 and 2015 when I looked more deeply at the cultural evolution literature.

He ends with:

If there is an overall theme, I think I was more optimistic about the future in 2002 than how the future has actually turned out. And I’m more pessimistic about the future in 2019 than I was in 2002 by a longshot.

Two points. I am the reverse. I think I am more optimistic now than then.

More importantly, what I see across the 27 revisions in his understanding is an increasing uncertainty rather than necessarily having been wrong.

I suspect that this is a common trend. There are many things we believe with great confidence which we then discover to be much more complex than we thought. It is not that that we were necessarily wrong but perhaps the belief is not as universal, is more restricted to particular circumstances, or is less consequential. Our thinking has changed rather than necessarily a reversal of the right wrong dichotomy.

Things are complex, our knowledge incomplete, our experience limited. Of course our thinking should change.

Or, as Hippocrates observed,

Ὁ βίος βραχύς,
ἡ δὲ τέχνη μακρή,

or in Latin

Ars longa,
vita brevis

and in English

Art is long,
life is short.