Changes in views or changes in demography?

This answers a question I have long had.

The question is:

Given the rising anti-semitism in Europe over the past three decades, how much of that is evolving positions among native Europeans and how much of it is due to an increase in the number of Muslim refugees in Europe?

There is a further variant which accommodates the proposition that Muslim refugees are driving the increase but it is exacerbated by reluctance of national governments to address it. England and France seem to fit that test case.

The Rape Gangs of England and the surging Jewish emigration from France indicate that there is a real world consequence of such accommodation of antisemitism.

From Antisemitic Violence in Europe, 2005-2015 Exposure and Perpetrators in France, UK, Germany, Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Russia by Johannes Due Enstad.

How often do incidents of antisemitic violence occur in contemporary Europe, and what trends are showing? How exposed are Jewish populations in different countries? Who commits these crimes? We need to answer such questions as precisely as possible in order to effectively combat and prevent antisemitism in general and violent antisemitism in particular, but we lack the knowledge to do so because systematic studies of the subject are few and far between. As a step towards filling this research gap, the current report presents some tentative findings about violent antisemitism in a sample of European countries and proposes directions for further research.

Combining incident data based on police reporting with a 2012 survey on antisemitism carried out by the European Union’s Fundamental Rights Agency (FRA), this report tentatively compares the levels of antisemitic violence in different countries. The seven-country sample contains comparable data for France, UK, Germany and Sweden only. Among these countries, Jews’ exposure to antisemitic violence appears to have been highest in France, lower in Sweden and Germany, and lowest in the United Kingdom. Figures for Norway, Denmark and Russia are not directly comparable because of differing data sources. However, Russia clearly stands out with a very low number of incidents considering Russia’s relatively large Jewish population. Russia is also the only case in which there is little to indicate that Jews avoid displaying their identity in public.

Available data on perpetrators suggest that individuals of Muslim background stand out among perpetrators of antisemitic violence in Western Europe, but not in Russia, where right-wing extremist offenders dominate. Attitude surveys corroborate this picture in so far as antisemitic attitudes are far more widespread among Muslims than among the general population in Western Europe. The findings presented here are tentative. More and better data as well as more research are needed in order to form a more accurate picture of the nature and causes of antisemitic violence, a prerequisite for determining relevant countermeasures.

Interesting about Russia.

Sources of antisemitic attacks in France, England, Germany and Sweden.

Click to enlarge.

60-75% of antisemitic acts are by Muslims. This creates a vile moral dilemma - The trade-off between protecting your own citizens of Jewish heritage while also wanting to provide humanitarian safe havens to refugees. This (tentative) evidence suggests you can do one or the other but not both.

Also intriguing that across the four countries, only 7-21% of anti-semitic acts are attributed to Christians/Right wing individuals. Anecdotally that squares with what I have seen or heard about directly.

2X to 5X as many antisemitic acts are committed by the left wing as opposed to the right wing (except in Germany) which also sounds about right.

While the details might differ a little bit in the US, I suspect that the broad trend is the same. Most the hate crime is likely from Muslims and left wing extremists. Virtually none from Christians and only a tiny amount (because they are a tiny presence) from the extreme right.

Enstad takes great pains to emphasize that this is all very tentative. I concur. Not conclusive by any means but compatible with anecdote and circumstantial information.