A telegenic Banquo's ghost

From Dems Excited About Beto for Some Reason by Jim Treacher.

Beto gets away with drunken car accidents like a Kennedy, he appropriates other cultures like Elizabeth Warren, and he marries into wealth like John Kerry. He's the total package!

Well, yes. I would add one more qualification.

Beto has the resume of accomplishments of a Senator Obama, gets away with drunken car accidents like a Kennedy, he appropriates other cultures like Elizabeth Warren, and he marries into wealth like John Kerry. He's the total package!

Not a political rant but a sociological puzzlement.

The little I know of O'Rourke is that he conducted the most expensive Senate campaign ever in the nation in his run for Ted Cruz's seat in Texas in 2018. Spending $80 million to Cruz's $40 million he came within three points, 51% to 48%. From an operational perspective, the only thing interesting to me was that Cruz appeared to run a very tight, very low key, very grass roots campaign relying heavily on traditional retail electioneering whereas O'Rourke was all sex and sizzle. Databases, and social media campaigns and high press engagement, etc. It was a study in contrasts of campaigns as much as a contrast in candidates.

In the conservative media, he is portrayed as an inconsequential lightweight and on the progressive side of things as a voice of youth and positivity.

What I am wrestling with is that derivation of Treacher's observation.

Beto has the resume of accomplishments of a Senator Obama, gets away with drunken car accidents like a Kennedy, he appropriates other cultures like Elizabeth Warren, and he marries into wealth like John Kerry. He's the total package!

Cruel as that characterization is, it doesn't seem far off from the truth. For a Democratic Party which seems to want young, ethnic, female, and progressive, O'Rourke seems to fit only two of those criteria.

When puzzled, start with the numbers. Young, ethnic, female, and progressive is my impression from the news coverage but is that really what is wanted by the party? No feasible way to tell. As a very crude proxy, we can look at the candidates who seem to think they have a chance.

As of this date, there are ten declared candidates and six who have formed exploratory committees; sixteen in total. Still below the Republican's field of seventeen in 2016 but already pretty crowded this far in advance.

Youth - 7 candidates are below age 50; 4 are between 50 and 65 and 5 are above 65.

Ethnic - 2 black males, 1 Asian American male, 1 Hispanic male, 2 mixed race females; a total of 6 minority candidates

Gender - 10 males and 6 females

Progressive - 6 would likely self-identify as progressive but 10 are traditional mainstream politicians. Karmela Harris talks like a progressive but her record is much more mainstream. I have counted her as mainstream.

So the mainstream media is pushing hard on the notion that this is an election cycle for young, female, ethnic progressives. The New York Times in particular has been pushing hard for the Harris campaign.

But even though that is the message, there have been a number of signals that perhaps all is not as the Times wishes it to appear. Sanders in particular appears to be the Banquo of the Party's banquet. Always present and to greater enduring effect than one might guess. Young, female, ethnic progressives might be the mainstream media mantra but apparently there is still room at the table for old white socialist males.

As the numbers show, perhaps this isn't a young, female, ethnic progressive cycle. Across the sixteen declared or exploring candidates, on a modal basis, the most common candidate attributes reflect a 55 year old male white establishment candidate.

The mainstream media are clearly in love with Beto for some reason. Whether because of his echo of the Kennedys in terms of youth, young family and good hair, or because he is photogenic, a glib communicator, or some other hard to perceive attribute. I initially was thinking that perhaps the media was misreading the mood of the democratic faithful, given the trope of young, female, ethnic progressive.

But it is quite possible that the young, female, ethnic progressive trope is a manufactured trope which helps sell papers and that the media recognizes that what is wanted is a 55 year old male white establishment candidate. O'Rourke fits the second bill a lot more closely than the first.

And perhaps the media will always simply fall for the most photogenic. This feels like a replay of the media love affair with the Kennedys, with Clinton, and with Obama.

There seem to be a lot of cross tides in the media at the moment in terms of what they portray versus what they respond to.