Reality is a hard task master

This article (How one man’s wild geological treasure hunt could set off a new great oil boom by Steve LeVine) provides a great example of knowledge frontiers and the limits on decision-making.

Most decisions are undermined by a failure to articulate the goals, define the terms and acknowledge critical assumptions. Even once that is in place there are still cognitive biases, logical fallacies and the inappropriate applicate of common heuristics which can lead you astray. Ideally you want an argument that proceeds logically from first principles bolstered empirical evidence that has been robustly scrubbed (much independent replication of results and few or no counter-factuals).

And that's pretty much what you have in LeVine's report. McMullin (the oil exploration advocate in the story) has constructed a logical argument supported with strong empirical evidence and if he is right there will be huge positive outcomes given the objectives.

But for all that the argument is well constructed, logical, and empirically grounded and has been critically reviewed by hundreds of very smart people with a significant stake in the outcome, it is still the case that the majority of exploratory wells are dry.

Reality is a hard task master and our knowledge frontiers are more constrained than we wish to acknowledge. You can do everything right and have an excellent decision process and still not be successful.