The laws of probability, so true in general, so fallacious in particular

From 'Memoirs of my Life and Writings' by Edward Gibbon.

The present is a fleeting moment, the past is no more; and our prospect of futurity is dark and doubtful. This day may possibly be my last: but the laws of probability, so true in general, so fallacious in particular, still allow about fifteen years.

I wonder sometimes whether our popular discourse is not gravely handicapped by an incapacity towards statistical thinking, the kernel of which Gibbon so cleverly catches, "so true in general, so fallacious in particular."

There is little about any human related activity about which we can speak with precise confidence but we can certainly speak with a high degree of statistical confidence. In a given matriculating college class (depending on the university), I can speak with great statistical confidence that 40% will not graduate (or whatever number is applicable to that particular institution) but I cannot with equal confidence identify precisely which of the population will constitute that 40%.

But many people will disavow the utility of the general statistical truth because it cannot be applied with precision to the particular. Whether this is done because of ignorance or cognitive dissonance or has some other root cause, I do not know, but it is a common problem that muddies the waters and holds us back from making the sort of progress that might be beneficial to individuals and communities.