Tuesday, June 11, 2013

Cognitive tail-chasing

Reading and thinking about the Dunning-Kruger Effect makes me wonder: as barriers to entry in various fields come down owing to internet access and its enablement of disintermediation, will there not likely be an increasing population of low performing but highly passionate individuals in the bottom objective quartiles of each field who substantially overestimate their capacity to contribute to the advancement of that field.

If that were true, then you would expect to see increasing accusations against the top performers of the field, the accusers trying to make the case that their marginal contributions are being overlooked because the field is rigged, is dominated by insiders, is biased against outsiders, etc. Anything to justify their low performance.

While annoying in fields with objective measures of performance and excellence, such disruptive accusations in fields less measurable would be especially vulnerable to self-doubt and reflection. Self-doubt and reflection are not bad things in themselves but are a waste of time in response to self-serving accusations. I think we already see that wasted responsiveness in some subjective fields as art and writing. It then becomes especially important to find objectively measurable proxies for excellence in order to keep conversations focused on productive issues rather than allowing an endless cycle of cognitive tail-chasing.

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