Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Stricter in their morals and more religious

From What if we all died at forty? by Tyler Cowen.

An interesting question. There are many speculative essays out there justifying some belief or policy or action based on evolutionary psychology. This is a parlor game masquerading as science. Our capacity from our current context to comprehend the reality of a past context is strained and Cowen's question is a good test of that limit.

Some of his answers:
One question is how child-bearing norms will evolve. There will be considerable pressure to have kids at age eighteen or so. (It might be considered unethical to have a child at age thirty-five, although if the fertility rate falls enough the economy might shift heavily into orphanages and this could be considered virtuous nonetheless.) I predict many people would become much stricter in their morals and more religious, and they will have children quite early.

Other people would attempt to maintain a collegiate lifestyle through their death at age forty. There would be a polarization of outcomes and approaches to life. Old age as an equalizer, and as an enforcer of responsible savings behavior, would be gone.

The likelihood of warfare would rise, if only because the sage elderly won’t be around and male hormones will run rampant.

Credit would be harder to come by and the rate of home ownership would fall. The rate of voting turnout will go down, as would the degree of wealth inequality and the amount of innovation. Federal discretionary spending, as a percentage of the budget, would rise.
But it is a doubly interesting question. How your behavior changes might depend on whether you are dealing with the certainty of death at 40 (certainty) or if you are simply dealing with a foreshortened life span (you might still live to seventy but the odds are against it). Are the answers to the two different formulations the same?

If in the future we extend life spans to 150, what would be their future speculations about behavior change when life spans were only 70-80? Alternatively, what will be our beliefs, values, behaviors, and expectations when we live to 150?

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