There are always more plausible accounts of social phenomena than are actually true

From The science communication problem: one good explanation, four not so good ones, and a fitting solution by Dan Kahan.

There are always more plausible accounts of social phenomena than are actually true. Empirical observation and measurement are necessary--not just to enlarge collective knowledge but also to steer people away from dead ends as they search for effective solutions to the society’s problems.

We so often come up with a plausible explanation for a phenomena and then, rather than testing it directly, we simply proceed as if the conceptualization of a plausible explanation is the same as proving it with messy objective empirical data.