A wise man, therefore, proportions his belief to the evidence.

David Hume in An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding. Chapter X, Of Miracles.

Though experience be our only guide in reasoning concerning matters of fact; it must be acknowledged, that this guide is not altogether infallible, but in some cases is apt to lead us into errors.

[snip]

All effects follow not with like certainty from their supposed causes. Some events are found, in all countries and all ages, to have been constantly conjoined together: Others are found to have been more variable, and sometimes to disappoint our expectations; so that, in our reasonings concerning matter of fact, there are all imaginable degrees of assurance, from the highest certainty to the lowest species of moral evidence.

[snip]

A wise man, therefore, proportions his belief to the evidence.