Certitude is not the test of certainty

An interesting article highlighting the precariousness of knowledge. As our body knowledge of increases, becomes more precise and so often more beneficial, the temptation to extrapolate and conclude that all important topics share a similar level of completeness of knowledge seems to be irresistible. In particular, crime, climate, obesity, many health issues and education all are incredibly important but are also incredibly complex. Our confidence in our knowledge of cause and effect in these matters is as yet, no matter what advocates and self-dealing politicians might say, wholly unfounded.

What if It's All Been a Big Fat Lie? by Gary Taubes is a report on emerging concerns that the confident advice rendered on necessary attributes of diet might be linked to the obesity epidemic.

I am reminded of Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr. from Natural Law, Harvard Law Review

Certitude is not the test of certainty. We have been cocksure of many things that were not so.