Tuesday, February 24, 2026

Of the Sixth and Seventh Century by C.P. Cavafy

Of the Sixth and Seventh Century
by C.P. Cavafy

It's very interesting and moving,
the Alexandria of the sixth century, or early in the seventh
before the coming of the mighty Arab nation.
She still speaks Greek, officially;
perhaps without much verve, yet, as is only fitting,
she speaks our language still.
Throughout the Greek world it's destined to fade away;
but here it's still holding up as best it can.

It's not unnatural if we have looked upon
this particular era so feelingly,
we who now have once more borne
the sound of Greek speech back to her soil.

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Hampstead Village, Flask Walk, 2025 by Liam O'Farrell

Hampstead Village, Flask Walk, 2025 by Liam O'Farrell (Britain)

























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Monday, February 23, 2026

History

 

An Insight

 

The hard work is refusing two temptations

From The Helicopter, The Courtroom, & The Greater Good by Rajesh Achanta.  The subheading is ... hope. recently airborne.  Speaking about the strategy and tactics regarding the Maduro raid in Venezuela.

The hard work is refusing two temptations: moral purity that won’t speak about outcomes, and moral convenience that speaks only about outcomes.

If we want to argue about this without chest-thumping or doom, its useful to separate two sentences that people keep merging: I’m glad this happened and I endorse the method. Those are different claims.
 

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Perhaps people throw themselves into heated polemics to give content to their lives, to warm their hearts.

From Sparks: Eric Hoffer and the art of the notebook by Tom Bethell.  One of Hoffer's observations is:

POLEMICS GIVE WARMTH

Perhaps people throw themselves into heated polemics to give content to their lives, to warm their hearts. What Luther said of hatred is true of all quarreling. There is nothing like a feud to make life seem full and interesting. 1950

Seventy-years later and with the always-in, always connected, social media rich internet, we can see that the technology has changed but the human motivation is the same.

With a caveat.  In 1950, even in prosperous America, everyone was much closer to the financial margin.  We are astonishingly wealthier, healthier, live in bigger houses, with more things than ever in history.  Your average American today lives a safer, healthier, richer and more comfortable, life than any medieval monarch.  

It used to be fate and circumstance forced existential, life-and-death trials and tribulations on us with great frequency.  Mere survival gave life meaning.

The further we pull away from that dangerous frontier where survival is a real question, it seems like the more some people are disposed towards meaningless quarreling in order to give meaning to life.  

It is notable that the friction created on social media is at such variance from real life.  Pareto distribution is everywhere.  Only a small percent of people use X (or any social media platform) and only a small proportion of those on the platform generate most the content, and most that content tends to be self-created quarreling.  

Not only are people safer and more comfortable but at the same time we have created a mechanism for them to create the quarreling cantankerous environment (think BueSky) that creates a simulacrum of meaning.  

There are people who believe only so far as they understand

From Wilson by A. Scott Berg

Wilson never doubted his faith. “There are people who believe only so far as they understand,” he said, “—that seems to me presumptuous.” The power of religion, he insisted, made his life “worth living.”

I think it is one of the ironies of our culture that there are such tensions within our constituent sources.  The modern west is the offspring of Christianity, Classical Liberalism and the Scientific Revolution (Rational Empiricism combined with the Scientific Method).  It is a rich mix and Christianity is a critical moderating influence to the authoritarianism and even totalitarianism which are a not uncommon side-effect of rational empiricism.  

Yet Protestant Christians weekly proclaim the mystery of faith:

Christ has died.
Christ is risen.
Christ will come again.

The Empirical Rationalist can argue themselves up to a certain point of anemic faith, a point of convincing probabilities of an historical event, but that is a mere shadow.  Christianity is a matter of faith in an unproven miracle.  If it were proven, there would be no faith.  

The leap of faith for the Classical Liberal/Empirical Rationalist is to go beyond being a person who believes only so far as they understand.  The more a Classical Liberal/Empirical Rationalist you are, the greater is the leap of faith into belief.  

A Voyage to the Moon by Gustave Doré

A Voyage to the Moon by Gustave Doré (France, 1832-1883)

































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Sunday, February 22, 2026

History

 

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Manet on the Isle of Wight, 1875 by Berthe Morisot

Manet on the Isle of Wight, 1875 by Berthe Morisot (France, 1841-1895)





















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Saturday, February 21, 2026

History

 

An Insight

 

Dogmeat General, the basest warlord. And poet.

The stories large and small that still await discovery.  How can anyone ever be bored.

I just came across Zhang Zongchang, hearing him described as "the best warrior poet of China during the warlords era."  Ironically, as it turns out.  From Wikipedia:

Zhang Zongchang (Chinese: 張宗昌; pinyin: Zhāng Zōngchāng; also romanized as Chang Tsung-chang; 1881 – 3 September 1932), courtesy name Xiaokun, was a Chinese warlord who ruled Shandong from 1925 to 1928. A member of the Fengtian clique, Zhang was notorious for his brutal and ruthless behavior, eccentric personality, and extravagant lifestyle, which earned him nicknames such as the "Dogmeat General"; Time in 1927 dubbed him China's "basest warlord".

Zhang's troops were defeated by the National Revolutionary Army during the Northern Expedition in 1928, and he fled to Japan before returning to Shandong in 1932, where he was assassinated by a young officer.

Hard not to excerpt the whole entry for its improbable reality.

Zhang was born in 1881 in Ye County (掖縣, now Laizhou city) in Shandong. His family was poor. Zhang's father worked as a head shaver and trumpeter, and was an alcoholic. His mother was an exorcist and "practicing witch". His parents eventually separated. Zhang stayed with his mother who had taken a new lover. In his teens, Zhang's family moved to Manchuria (which was known as Chuang Guandong at that time), where Zhang became involved in petty crime in Harbin. He successively worked as a pickpocket, bouncer, and prospector. At some point, he worked in Siberia, learning Russian. Zhang eventually became a bandit in the Chinese countryside, though he served as auxiliary for the Imperial Russian Army during the Russo-Japanese War in 1904–1905. Following the conflict, he returned to crime and rose to lead his own bandit gang.

Alcoholic head shaver and exorcist/practicing witch - Chinese genealogy is lit.

There is a whole section on his nicknames.  

"Old Eighty-Six": The origin of this nickname is unclear. According to rumour it either referred to his height or to the length of his penis, which was said to measure up to a pile of 86 Mexican silver dollars when erect. Mexican silver dollars were a common currency in China at the time.

During the 1920s warlord era in China, Mexican silver dollars were a common currency?  Really?

The entry is just filled with arresting facts and writing.  

Zhang was notorious for his hobby of splitting the skulls of prisoners with his sword, and for hanging dissidents from telephone poles. Despite his negative reputation, however, Zhang was also known to be very sociable, charming and commanded the respect of his troops as well as superiors.

It just doesn't stop.  There has to be a movie about such an improbable character.

Zhang loved to boast about the size of his penis, which became part of his legend. He was a "well-known womanizer" and polygamist. At the height of his power, he had some 30 to 50 concubines of different nationalities, who were given numbers since he could not remember their names nor speak their language. According to Time, several of his concubines had been forcibly seized from rich families in Shandong. However, some of his concubines stayed with him throughout his career, with him marrying the earliest when he was still a coolie. His concubines included Chinese, Japanese, Russians, Koreans, Mongolians and at least one American. According to research by journalist John Gunther, his harem included concubines of 26 different nationalities. Zhang reportedly ate meat of black Chow Chow dogs every day, as it was popularly believed at the time that this meat would boost a man's virility. He was free with his gifts, lavishly squandering money and concubines on superiors and friends. As a result, his commanders were very loyal to him, contributing to his military success.

OK, enough distractions.  What about the poetry?

Although only semi-literate, Zhang Zongchang was also known for writing poetry, though his works (such as the "Poem about bastards", the "Daming Lake poem", "Visiting Penglai Pavilion", and "Pray for Rain") are generally considered to be quite bad. However, according to Zhang's fourth daughter Zhang Chunsui, Zhang was not in the habit of writing poems. Some sources have also disputed these poems as being fabrications made by his political opponent Han Fuju to slander him. When asked about where he got his education, Zhang liked to say that he went to the 'College of the Green Forest,' a common euphemism for banditry at the time.

Poem About Bastards was the fleeting reference that started me down this alley.

Poem About Bastards
by Zhang Zongchang

You tell me to do this,
He tells me to do that.
You're all bastards,
Go fuck your mother.

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Winter at Etikhove, 1943 by Leo Piron

Winter at Etikhove, 1943 by Leo Piron (Belgium, 1899-1962)





















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Friday, February 20, 2026

History

 

An Insight

 

I see wonderful things

 

Offbeat Humor

 

Data Talks

 

A Garden by Auguste Renoir

A Garden by Auguste Renoir (France, 1841-1919)





















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Roman Ruins, 1872 by Adalbert Stifter

Roman Ruins, 1872 by Adalbert Stifter (Bohemia/Austria, 1805-1868)





















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Thursday, February 19, 2026

History

 

An Insight

 

I see wonderful things

 

Offbeat Humor

 

Data Talks

 

Eros and the Goddesses of Destiny, 1908 by Julius Kronberg

Eros and the Goddesses of Destiny, 1908 by Julius Kronberg (Sweden, 1850-1921)


















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Wednesday, February 18, 2026

History

 

An Insight

 

I see wonderful things

 

Offbeat Humor

 

Data Talks

 

The Knight of the Holy Grail, 1912 by Frederick Judd Waugh

The Knight of the Holy Grail, 1912 by Frederick Judd Waugh (America, 1861-1940)




















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Tuesday, February 17, 2026

History

 

An Insght

 

I see wonderful things

 

Offbeat Humor

 

Data Talks

 

Morning in Kyoto, 1979 by Jun'ichiro Sekino

Morning in Kyoto, 1979 by Jun'ichiro Sekino (Japan, 1914-1988)   


































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Monday, February 16, 2026

The ‘revolting’ but right pitted against the ‘romantic’ but wrong

From Reform vs the Greens captures the real divide in politics by Patrick West.  The subheading is In Gorton and Denton, we see the ‘revolting’ but right pitted against the ‘romantic’ but wrong.


For the first time anyone can remember, in a contest for a Westminster seat in an English city, the two parties vying for power won’t be Labour or the Conservatives, but instead be two insurgent outsiders. This is a twin-pronged revolt against the political mainstream – against a clique that has become ever more detached and tin-eared since the advent of globalisation in the 1990s.

The concerns articulated by both outfits, Reform UK and the Green Party, mirror those seen in all developed countries around the globe. In Reform, we have a party that appeals to small-c conservatives and a disaffected working class who inhabit deindustrialised areas, who feel their homeland has been degraded by an aloof, footloose liberal-left who cares little for them or their country. In the Greens, we have a party that has enjoyed a surge in popularity by taking a sharp turn to the left, appealing to a graduate class for whom the ‘elites’ are instead neoliberal capitalists, who must be humbled through punitive tax hikes. The Greens have remained steadfast passengers on the woke bandwagon, still proud to fly the Progress Pride flag, while simultaneously making gainful overtures to Muslim voters. Time will tell how well that interesting marriage works out.

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History

 

An Insight

 

I see wonderful things

 

Offbeat Humor

 

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Winter Express, 2025 by Jef Bourgeau

Winter Express, 2025 by Jef Bourgeau (America, 1950 - )

























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Sunday, February 15, 2026

History

 

An Insight

 

I see wonderful things

 

Offbeat Humor

 

Data Talks

 

Courtyard of the Jama Mosque, 1840 by Eugène Flandin

Courtyard of the Jama Mosque, 1840 by Eugène Flandin (France, 1809-1889)


















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Saturday, February 14, 2026

The Macbeths' is the happiest marriage in Shakespeare

Heh.  I came across this claim.

Harold Bloom said that the Macbeths have the only happy marriage in all of Shakespeare.

Well, it appears to be true and this seems to be a topic of fairly esoteric literary discussion.

Grok confirms:

In his 2019 book Macbeth: A Dagger of the Mind, Bloom writes:  

"Long ago, I remember characterizing the Macbeths as the happiest marriage in Shakespeare. That can seem a grim jest, yet it is veracious. Their passion for each other is absolute in every way, as much metaphysical as erotic. The lust for power fuses with mutual desire and enhances the turbulence of their ecstasy."

I see a screenshot of Dreadnought on Bluesky.

You may laugh, but the Macbeths are a much better role model for a marriage than Romeo and Juliet.  They discuss their problems (killing the King of Scotland), share their hobbies (killing the King of Scotland), and resolve their conflicts (by killing the King of Scotland.)

But who wants to be foretold the weather?

From Three Men in a Boat: To Say Nothing of the Dog by Jerome K. Jerome

But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand.

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On the Suffolk Coast, 1885 by Willard Metcalf

On the Suffolk Coast, 1885 by Willard Metcalf (America, 1858-1925)



















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Friday, February 13, 2026

How the time passed away, slipped into nightfall as if it had never been!

Yesterday I posted the poem The Wanderer from The Exeter Anthology.  A haunting, nostalgic, grieving poem.  Ancient but so relevant to so many today, living atomized lives separated always from the story of their own lives.  

How the time passed away, 
slipped into nightfall as if it had never been!

or, in a different translation:

How the time has gone! 
It darkened beneath the helm of night, as if it never even were.

Almost gut wrenching.


















Monastery Graveyard in the Snow by Caspar David Friedrich (Germany, 1774–1840)


I have read passages from The Book of Exeter in the past but I don't recall reading this poem.  Perhaps it is the particular translation.

Three things struck me.

First was how much this reminds me of Lord of the Rings.  It is nearly twenty years since I last read it, to my kids, but The Wanderer evokes so many elements of the story.  A quick google and it does turn out that Tolkien was explicit in his use of The Wanderer as both inspiration and model.  


Second was the echoes of Beowulf.  The band of wandering warriors.

Thus spoke the Wanderer, mindful of troubles,
of cruel slaughters and the fall of dear kinsmen:

The gold-giving lord and mead with fellow warriors in the halls of old.

He who has come to know
how cruel a companion is sorrow 
to one who has few dear protectors, will understand this:
the path of exile claims him, not patterned gold,
a frost-bound spirit, not the solace of earth.
He remembers hall-holders and treasure-taking,
how in his youth his gold-giving lord 
accustomed him to the feast—that joy all fades.


The third thing was the Old English word wyrd for fate.  Immediately Macbeth's "weird sisters" came to mind.  I was fifteen when I first read Macbeth closely and have done so a number of times over the years.  There is something about that particular tragedy that grips me.  But I don't ever recall reading anything that connected me to Old English wyrd.  

The play opens with the three weird sisters:

Scene 1
Thunder and Lightning. Enter three Witches.

FIRST WITCH 
When shall we three meet again?
In thunder, lightning, or in rain?

SECOND WITCH 
When the hurly-burly’s done,
When the battle’s lost and won.

THIRD WITCH 
That will be ere the set of sun.

FIRST WITCH 
Where the place?

SECOND WITCH  Upon the heath.

THIRD WITCH 
There to meet with Macbeth.

FIRST WITCH  I come, Graymalkin.

SECOND WITCH  Paddock calls.

THIRD WITCH  Anon.

ALL 
Fair is foul, and foul is fair;
Hover through the fog and filthy air.

They exit.

Wikipedia has a discussion of the weird sisters and their connection to Old English wyrd.

The name "weird sisters" is found in most modern editions of Macbeth. However, the First Folio's text reads:

The weyward Sisters, hand in hand,
Posters of the Sea and Land...

In later scenes in the First Folio, the witches are described as "weyward", but never "weird". The modern appellation "weird sisters" derives from Holinshed's original Chronicles. The word weird (descended from Old English wyrd 'fate') was a borrowing from Middle Scots and had different meanings besides the modern common meaning 'eerie'. (This and related modern senses derives from the word's usage in Macbeth.)

One of Shakespeare's principal sources is the Holinshed (1587) account of King Duncan. Holinshed described the future King Macbeth of Scotland and his companion Banquo encountering "three women in strange and wild apparell, resembling creatures of elder world" who hail the men with glowing prophecies and then vanish "immediately out of their sight". Holinshed reported that "the common opinion was that these women were either the Weird Sisters, that is [...] the goddesses of destiny, or else some nymphs or fairies endued with knowledge of prophecy by their necromantical science."

A thousand year old poem reaching across forty generations, still speaking to us about things we share.  Wisdom still being transmitted for those who pay attention.  Sometimes directly, often in round-about ways.

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'Holy Fox Tattoos', Islington, 2024 by Sarah Lundblad

'Holy Fox Tattoos', Islington, 2024 by Sarah Lundblad (Sweden/England)


































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Thursday, February 12, 2026

Vanish'd is the feverish dream of life



































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The gravestone of the chartist leader Samuel Holberry, "who at the early age of 27 died in York Castle, after suffering an imprisonment of 2 years and 3 months, June 21st 1842, for advocating what to him appeared to be the true interest of the people of England."

This is followed by a verse.

Vanish'd is the feverish dream of life,
The rich and poor find no distinction here,
The great and lowly end their care and strife,
The well beloved may have affections tear.
But at the last, the oppressor and the slave,
Shall equal stand before the bar of God,
Of him, who life, and hope, and freedom gave,
To all who thro' this vale of tears have trod.
Let none then murmur 'gainst the wise decree
That open'd the door, and set the captive free.

Seemingly much of the Romantic Era.  Some slight echoes of Wordsworth.

The Wanderer from The Exeter Anthology

The Wanderer

Always the one alone longs for mercy,
the Maker’s mildness, though, troubled in mind,
across the ocean-ways he has long been forced
to stir with his hands the frost-cold sea,
and walk in exile’s paths. Wyrd is fully fixed!(1)
Thus spoke the Wanderer, mindful of troubles,
of cruel slaughters and the fall of dear kinsmen:(2)
“Often alone, every first light of dawn,
I have had to speak my sorrows. There is no one living
to whom I would dare to reveal clearly 
my deepest thoughts. I know it is true
that it is in the lordly nature of a nobleman
to closely bind his spirit’s coffer,
hold his treasure-hoard, whatever he may think.
The weary mind cannot withstand wyrd
the troubled heart can offer no help,
and so those eager for fame often bind fast
in their breast-coffers a sorrowing soul,
just as I have had to take my own heart —
often wretched, cut off from my homeland, 
far from dear kinsmen — and bind it in fetters,
ever since long ago I hid my gold-giving friend
in the darkness of earth, and went wretched,
winter-sad, over the binding waves,
sought, hall-sick, a treasure-giver, 
wherever I might find, far or near,
someone in a meadhall who knew of my people,
or who’d want to comfort me, friendless,
accustom me to joy. He who has come to know
how cruel a companion is sorrow 
to one who has few dear protectors, will understand this:
the path of exile claims him, not patterned gold,
a frost-bound spirit, not the solace of earth.
He remembers hall-holders and treasure-taking,
how in his youth his gold-giving lord 
accustomed him to the feast—that joy all fades.
And so he who has long been forced to forego
his dear lord’s beloved words of counsel will understand:
when sorrow and sleep both together
often bind up the wretched exile, 
it seems in his mind that he clasps and kisses
his lord of men, and on his knee lays
hands and head, as he sometimes long ago
in earlier days enjoyed the gift-throne.(3)
But when the friendless man awakens again 
and sees before him the fallow waves,
seabirds bathing, spreading their feathers,
frost falling and snow, mingled with hail,
then the heart’s wounds are that much heavier,
pain after pleasure. Sorrow is renewed 
when the mind flies out to the memory of kinsmen;(4)
he greets them with great joy, greedily surveys
hall-companions — they always swim away;
the floating spirits bring too few
well-known voices. Cares are renewed 
for one who must send, over and over,
a weary heart across the binding of the waves.(5)
And so I cannot imagine for all this world
why my spirit should not grow dark
when I think through all this life of men, 
how they suddenly gave up the hall-floor,
mighty warrior tribes. Thus this middle-earth
droops and decays one day at a time;
and so a man cannot become wise, before he has weathered
his share of winters in this world. A wise man must be patient, 
neither too hot-hearted nor too hasty with words,
nor too weak in war nor too unwise in thoughts,
neither fearful nor fawning, nor too greedy for wealth,
never eager for boasting before he truly understands;
a man must wait, when he makes a boast, 
until the brave spirit understands truly
whither the thoughts of his heart will turn.
The wise man must realize how ghostly it will be
when all the wealth of this world stands waste,
as now here and there throughout this middle-earth 
walls stand blasted by wind,
beaten by frost, the buildings crumbling.
The wine halls topple, their rulers lie
deprived of all joys; the proud old troops
all fell by the wall. War carried off some, 
sent them on the way, one a bird carried off
over the high seas, one the gray wolf
shared with death—and one a sad-faced man
hid in an earthen grave. The ancient
ruler of men thus wrecked this enclosure, 
until the old works of giants stood empty,
without the sounds of their former citizens.(6)
He who deeply considers, with wise thoughts,
this foundation and this dark life,
old in spirit, often remembers 
so many ancient slaughters, and says these words:
‘Where have the horses gone? where are the riders? where is the giver of gold?
Where are the seats of the feast? where are the joys of the hall?
O the bright cup! O the brave warrior!
O the glory of princes! How the time passed away, 
slipped into nightfall as if it had never been!’
There still stands in the path of the dear warriors
a wall wondrously high, with serpentine stains.
A torrent of spears took away the warriors,
bloodthirsty weapons, wyrd the mighty, 
and the storms batter the stone walls,
frost falling binds up the earth,
the chaos of winter, when blackness comes,
night’s shadow looms, sends down from the north
harsh hailstones in hatred of men.
All is toilsome in the earthly kingdom,
the working of wyrd changes the world under heaven.
Here wealth is fleeting, here friends are fleeting,
here man is fleeting, here woman is fleeting,
all the security of this earth will stand empty.”
So said the wise one in his mind, sitting apart in meditation.
He is good who keeps his word,(7) and the man who never too quickly
shows the anger in his breast, unless he already knows the remedy,
how a nobleman can bravely bring it about. It will be well for one who seeks mercy, consolation from the Father in heaven, where for us all stability stands. 


source: the Exeter Book 
translation: R. M. Liuzza

1 Wyrd is the Old English word for Fate, a powerful but not quite personified force. It is related to the verb weorthan, meaning roughly ‘to occur’; it may be useful to think of wyrd as ‘what happens’, usually in a negative sense. In a poem so preoccupied with puzzling over the nature and meaning of fate, it seemed appropriate to leave the word untranslated.
2 The Exeter Book manuscript in which the poem survives does not have quotation marks, or clear indications of where one speech begins and ends in this poem; we are not sure whether lines 1-5 are spoken by the same character that speaks the following lines, or whether they are the narrator’s opinion on the general situation of the Wanderer.
3 The description seems to be some sort of ceremony of loyalty, charged with intense regret and longing.
4 Or “when the memory of kinsmen flies through the mind.”
5 The grammar and reference of this intense, almost hallucinatory scene is not entirely clear; the translation reflects one commonly-proposed reading.
6 Ruined buildings are called ‘the work of giants’ (enta geweorc) in several places in OE literature.
7 Or ‘keeps faith’. These last lines offer an answer to the Wanderer’s unresolved melancholia – the wisdom of self-control and the hope of Christian salvation.

History

 

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And all established enterprises and institutions struggle with a high rate of change, no matter what the source.

From BRO-BOTS ☙ Thursday, February 12, 2026 ☙ C&C NEWS by Jeff Childers in his substack Covid & Coffee.  

Childers is a practicing attorney and I do not know how he manages to publish a daily news update which connects dots from obscure sources to articulate a plausible interpretation of what is going on.  He is determinedly upbeat but sees warts and all.  And his insights are generally superior to most sources I follow.  

I have been following this story over the past week.  The case study is KPMG, one of the Big Four Accounting firms.  My career was in management consulting, first with Arthur Young in the Big Eight days, then as a partner at merged Ernst & Young, then later with demergered Cap Gemini Ernst & Young. 

I came up as a strategy consultant and then deep into technology once I started managing business units.  I am deeply familiar with the whole issue of billing by the hour.  For easily half my career, we had various strategies to move away from hourly billing.  As Childers points out, hourly billing has a certain resiliency for all sorts of reasons.  Many of which have to do with who pays the risk premium for highly complex, contingent and difficult work.

From today's C&C.

Pay attention! It’s happening. Late last week, the Financial Times quietly reported “KPMG pressed its auditor to pass on AI cost savings.” Is the billable hour on its last legs?

The Financial Times reported that KPMG— one of the world’s Big Four accounting firms— bullied its own auditor into a 14% fee cut. Their argument was elegant in its simplicity: if your AI is doing the work, your people shouldn’t be billing for it. KPMG’s hapless auditor, Grant Thornton, tried to kick but quickly folded like a WalMart lawn chair, dropping its auditing fee from $416,000 to $357,000.

And now every CFO on Earth is reaching for a calculator.

Here’s the dark comedy. Grant Thornton’s UK audit leader bragged in a December blog post that AI was making their work “faster and smarter.” KPMG took note, and immediately asked why it was still paying the slower-and-dumber price. This is why lawyers tell their clients to stop posting on social media. The marketing department just became the billing department’s worst enemy.

As a lawyer who bills by the hour —and I suspect many of you work in professions that do the same— I can assure everyone that this story sent a terrifying chill racing through the spines of every white-collar professional who’s been out there cheerfully babbling about AI adoption at industry conferences.

The billable hour has survived the fax machine, personal computers, email, electronic filing, spreadsheets, and the entire internet. The billable hour has the survival instincts of a post-apocalyptic cockroach and the institutional momentum of a Senate tradition. But AI might finally be the dinosaur killer, and KPMG just showed everyone exactly how the asteroid hits: your client reads your own press release and demands a discount.

[snip]

The billable hour won’t die overnight. But it just got a terminal diagnosis. Every professional services firm that’s spent the last two years bragging about AI efficiency is now staring at the same problem: you can’t brag to your clients you’re faster and also charge them for the same number of hours. As they say at KPMG, it doesn’t add up. Somewhere in a law firm right now, a partner is quietly deleting a LinkedIn post about how AI is “transforming their practice.” Smart move.

The first rule of AI efficiency fight club is: you never talk about AI efficiency.

It reminds me of an incident in my firm in the late 1990s, maybe early 2000s.  I was the Asia Pacific partner for a global account where we were doing work for many subsidiaries all across the world.  I was on a global account call late one night (perhaps the most significant drawback to being based in Australia, you are on the short end of the timezones stick.) 

We had a new global initiative, establishing an Accelerated Development Center in India.  Client teams in the client country would do the needs and specifications development with the client and then the coding would be done in India.  Basically a labor cost arbitrage strategy.

The head of the ADC was on the call to make a pitch for the ADC services to the assembled global account partners.  At some point in her presentation, the ADC leader enthusiastically declared something along the lines of:

ADC Leader:  We have done multiple projects and trials and we have found we can reduce project costs by a third.

 To which our North American account leader responded by asking:

NA Account Leader:  Next week, I am submitting a proposal to the client for a $6 million project.  Does that mean that I can use the ADC and reduce the cost to $4 million?

What a lesson in being careful of what you claim.  The verbal backpedalling was spectacular.  

The ADC was an advance in efficiency.  It had value, most of which we shared with clients.  But never believe your own marketing.  Big complex projects are - big and complex.  Don't use rules of thumb (minimum of one third reduction) unless you are willing to stake your financial health on them.

Will AI create spectacular efficiencies?  I imagine so.  There will be some rough patches.  Systemic problems will be discovered.  Are the big Law and Accounting firms ready?  Probably not.  AI puts a lot of law and accounting within DIY reach for many firms.  And regardless of that, as Childers points out, if AI is providing dramatic improvements in efficiency, the competitive market will mean that most of that benefit will not go to the bottom line of the Accounting firm but to the client.  That's just the way of the market.

Technology isn't really the issue, its the rate of change.  And all established enterprises and institutions struggle with a high rate of change, no matter what the source.

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