Saturday, November 30, 2024

History

 

An Insight

 

I see wonderful things

 

Offbeat Humor

 

Data Talks

 

The Faraglioni Rocks, Capri, 1924 by Ivan Federovich Choultsé

The Faraglioni Rocks, Capri, 1924 by Ivan Federovich Choultsé





















Click to enlarge.

Friday, November 29, 2024

History

 

An Insight

 

I see wonderful things

 

Offbeat Humor

 

Data Talks

 

Bathers at Low Tide, Sennen, between 1915 and 1919 by Laura Knight

Bathers at Low Tide, Sennen, between 1915 and 1919 by Laura Knight  




















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Thursday, November 28, 2024

History

 

An Insight

 

I see wonderful things

 

Offbeat Humor

 

Data Talks

 

The Autumn Moon by Shufu Miyamoto (Japan, 1950 - )

The Autumn Moon by Shufu Miyamoto (Japan, 1950 - ) 








































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Wednesday, November 27, 2024

History

 

An Insight

 

I see wonderful things

 

Offbeat Humor

 

Data Talks

 

Unknown title by Sarah Siltala

Unknown title by Sarah Siltala

































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Tuesday, November 26, 2024

History

 

An Insight

 

I see wonderful things

 

Offbeat Humor

 

Data Talks

 

When lamps are lighted in the town, 1968 by A. Buchanan

When lamps are lighted in the town, 1968 by A. Buchanan




































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Monday, November 25, 2024

For as the body is one, and hath many members, and all the members of that one body, being many, are one body

1 Corinthians, Chapter 12, King James Version.  One of the most beautiful articulations that humans are members of the same spirit, that all humans are as one.

12 Now concerning spiritual gifts, brethren, I would not have you ignorant.

2 Ye know that ye were Gentiles, carried away unto these dumb idols, even as ye were led.

3 Wherefore I give you to understand, that no man speaking by the Spirit of God calleth Jesus accursed: and that no man can say that Jesus is the Lord, but by the Holy Ghost.

4 Now there are diversities of gifts, but the same Spirit.

5 And there are differences of administrations, but the same Lord.

6 And there are diversities of operations, but it is the same God which worketh all in all.

7 But the manifestation of the Spirit is given to every man to profit withal.

8 For to one is given by the Spirit the word of wisdom; to another the word of knowledge by the same Spirit;

9 To another faith by the same Spirit; to another the gifts of healing by the same Spirit;

10 To another the working of miracles; to another prophecy; to another discerning of spirits; to another divers kinds of tongues; to another the interpretation of tongues:

11 But all these worketh that one and the selfsame Spirit, dividing to every man severally as he will.

12 For as the body is one, and hath many members, and all the members of that one body, being many, are one body: so also is Christ.

13 For by one Spirit are we all baptized into one body, whether we be Jews or Gentiles, whether we be bond or free; and have been all made to drink into one Spirit.

14 For the body is not one member, but many.

15 If the foot shall say, Because I am not the hand, I am not of the body; is it therefore not of the body?

16 And if the ear shall say, Because I am not the eye, I am not of the body; is it therefore not of the body?

17 If the whole body were an eye, where were the hearing? If the whole were hearing, where were the smelling?

18 But now hath God set the members every one of them in the body, as it hath pleased him.

19 And if they were all one member, where were the body?

20 But now are they many members, yet but one body.

21 And the eye cannot say unto the hand, I have no need of thee: nor again the head to the feet, I have no need of you.

22 Nay, much more those members of the body, which seem to be more feeble, are necessary:

23 And those members of the body, which we think to be less honourable, upon these we bestow more abundant honour; and our uncomely parts have more abundant comeliness.

24 For our comely parts have no need: but God hath tempered the body together, having given more abundant honour to that part which lacked.

25 That there should be no schism in the body; but that the members should have the same care one for another.

26 And whether one member suffer, all the members suffer with it; or one member be honoured, all the members rejoice with it.

27 Now ye are the body of Christ, and members in particular.

28 And God hath set some in the church, first apostles, secondarily prophets, thirdly teachers, after that miracles, then gifts of healings, helps, governments, diversities of tongues.

29 Are all apostles? are all prophets? are all teachers? are all workers of miracles?

30 Have all the gifts of healing? do all speak with tongues? do all interpret?

31 But covet earnestly the best gifts: and yet shew I unto you a more excellent way.

 

History

 

An Insight

 

I see wonderful things

 

Offbeat Humor

 

Data Talks

 

My Parents 1977 by David Hockney

My Parents 1977 by David Hockney


























Click to enlarge.

Sunday, November 24, 2024

Roger Williams and John Milton

The things you learn as you trundle along.  

Roger Williams (1603-1683) was the founder of Rhode Island Plantation.  He first arrived in Boston in 1631 from early on clashed with other Puritan leaders.  Williams was mush more tolerant, inclusive and committed to freedom of thought, speech, and religion than were the other Puritans arriving in New England.  Those clashes ultimately leading to Williams departing Plymouth and Boston and establishing the settlements in Rhode Island.

John Milton (1608-1674) was the famous Puritan poet of Paradise Lost fame.  He was also famous for Areopagitica, an argument dealing with freedom of speech, expression and freedom from censorship published in 1644.  

What I learned today was that they were known to one another and friends.  

From Roger Williams, the Gentle Zealot Who Refused America’s ‘City on a Hill’ by Becky Garrison.  

Like other Puritans of his era, Williams honed a rigid moral code based upon biblical teachings that informed how he chose to conduct his life. However, he never felt anyone else should be compelled to follow his faith journey.

In particular, he disagreed vehemently with the Quakers about their beliefs and worship practices, like their tendency to “quake” at their meetings. Yet he extended a compassionate hand to Anne Hutchinson after she was also banished from the Massachusetts Bay Colony and gave her space to build her own meeting house in Portsmouth, Rhode Island.

In defining his role in the public sphere, rather than creating Puritan enclaves designed to separate the saved from the damned or encouraging dialogue to “discuss” the rights of the “outsider,” Williams chose to live with people even though they disagreed with one another. Taking advantage of his skills as a gifted linguist, he embraced all, knowing people are not isolated individuals but part of a shared global humanity.

Over the years, he paid dearly for his blunt and forcible language. Besides his exile, the House of Commons burned his masterpiece, “The Bloudy Tenent of Persecution, for Cause of Conscience,” published in 1644. In the book he details a host of vile acts committed by religious authorities at the behest of the Crown.

That same year Williams’ colleague John Milton published the “Areopagitica,” his plea for religious toleration. The friends were cut from the same intellectual cloth, with Williams teaching Milton Dutch in exchange for Milton tutoring him in other languages. But Milton’s commentary was far more tempered, as he stressed the need for all to live together in harmony without demanding the individual right of soul liberty.

Two giants, connected in ways I did not know.

History

 

An Insight

 

I see wonderful things

 

Offbeat Humor

 

Every reformation must have its victims

From The Complete Saki.  Page 12.

“Every reformation must have its victims. You can't expect the fatted calf to share the enthusiasm of the angels over the prodigal's return."

Data Talks

 

Rising Moon, 2008 by Kazuyuki Ohtsu

Rising Moon, 2008 by Kazuyuki Ohtsu 


































Click to enlarge.

Saturday, November 23, 2024

History

 

An Insight

 

I see wonderful things

 

Offbeat Humor

 

The first, I believe, is compulsory, the second optional.

From The Complete Saki.  Page 10.

“The mystery is what they find to talk about in the country.”

“There are two subjects of conversation in the country: Servants, and Can fowls be made to pay? The first, I believe, is compulsory, the second optional.”

Data Talks

 

Abide with me by Clare Allan

Abide with me by Clare Allan




























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Friday, November 22, 2024

History

 

An Insight

 

I see wonderful things

 

Offbeat Humor

 
























Click to enlarge.

Data Talks

 

She must have been rather a problem at Christmas-time; nothing short of a blank cheque would have fitted the situation.

From The Complete Saki.  Page 10.

And then, of course, there are liqueur glasses, and crystallized fruits, and tapestry curtains, and heaps of other necessaries of life that make really sensible presents—not to speak of luxuries, such as having one’s bills paid, or getting something quite sweet in the way of jewellery. Unlike the alleged Good Woman of the Bible, I'm not above rubies. When found, by the way, she must have been rather a problem at Christmas-time; nothing short of a blank cheque would have fitted the situation. Perhaps it’s as well that she’s died out.

Ginkgo Tree, 1965 by Shiro Kasamatsu (Japanese, 1898 - 1991)

Ginkgo Tree, 1965 by Shiro Kasamatsu (Japanese, 1898 - 1991) 




































Click to enlarge.

Thursday, November 21, 2024

The road are actually in reasonably good shape

A very good effort to quantify road quality in the US from How Good Are American Roads? by Brian Potter.  

There is periodically Mandarin Class panics about the state of American Infrastructure.  The source of the panic frequently varies.  Sometimes it is bridges, sometimes the rail system, sometimes roads, sometimes maritime ports, sometimes airports.  And always, the panic has one solution spend more money.

Cheap, safe and reliable transportation is indeed a critical foundation for all modern economies.  But whenever you go looking for the empirical basis for any particular panic, it rarely is built on much more than anecdotes.  Which is no basis for allocating scarce capital on long term assets.

Fortunately, at the local and tactical level, engineers tend to be more level headed and do a better job of tending to the quality of the nation's infrastructure with the most critical elements usually receiving the most attention.

Whenever this does not happen, it is almost always where a taxing jurisdiction (City, County or State) has been unduly profligate (usually on pensions) and have foregone necessary maintenance or capital upgrades.  That is, of course, a governance issue more than an engineering one.

Potter finds it challenging to gather comparable consistent data (international being more obscure than within the US) to establish a clear and uniform picture but his findings are interesting.  

One facet of infrastructure that doesn’t get all that much attention is roads, despite the fact that they’re crucial transportation infrastructure, and probably the infrastructure that Americans interact with most directly and consistently. The US has the largest road network in the world, about 4.3 million miles of road, and Americans drive much more than residents in most other countries. Good-quality roads are important for a functioning economy, and rough roads inflict costs in the form of reduced vehicle speeds.

The US is about 4% of the global population, has 10% of the global roads, 25% of the global rail system, 28% of air travel/freight,  and is about 26% of the global economy.  The US also has a far greater riverine system and associated river transport than virtually any other country.  Altogether the US has an immense, intricate, and multi-layered transport network allowing an unusual degree of mode shifting (changing between forms of transport) compared to most other countries.

As a single example, Russia has very little national highway system and is primarily dependent on rail for most transport and haulage.

So what did Potter find?

How good is American road infrastructure? How does it compare with roads built in other countries?

Overall, the quality of US interstates is very high, while the quality of roads in major cities is quite poor. And while there’s some anecdotal evidence that US roads are worse than European roads, I wasn’t able to find much international road quality data to compare. The limited data I found points to the US not being a huge outlier in road quality. But more data is needed to compare accurately.

[snip]

With non-interstates, we see more variation. Broadly, highly rural states tend to have higher quality roads than more urbanized states, though there’s a decent amount of variation. California, which is reasonably rural, nevertheless comes in third from the bottom. Interestingly, I expected cold places to have lower road quality in general due to things like freeze-thaw cycles and the impact of road salting, but there doesn’t seem to be much correlation. Plenty of cold places (North Dakota, Wyoming, Minnesota) have good-quality roads, while plenty of warm places (Louisiana, New Mexico, California) have poor-quality roads.

[snip]

While urban roads are poor in general, there’s a large amount of variation. Cities like Atlanta and Minneapolis have less than 10% of their roads are poor quality or worse, while more than 60% of the roads in San Francisco and Los Angeles are poor. But in general, most major cities aren’t doing great: in 13 of the 19 largest US cities, more than 1/3rd of the roads are poor quality. And here again we see that cold climate doesn’t seem to have much impact on road quality, with cold places like Minneapolis and New York near the top, while warm cities like Los Angeles, San Diego and Dallas are near the bottom.

I was astonished to see Atlanta rated so highly.  I travel all over the US and am moderately familiar with road quality in most regions.  I would have placed Atlanta much more in the middle, though the rating may be based on SMSA rather the City proper.

As Potter notes, weather conditions are not strongly correlated with road quality which is interesting. 

He doesn't draw attention to it, but road quality is also clearly correlated with policy.  The ten worst performing states, no matter which measures are being used, are almost always Blue States, even where they have large and strong economies (ex.  New York and California).  Only Louisiana as a generally Red State shows up in the shame category.

My suspicion is that this perhaps a function two different issues.  Blue states often like White Elephant type transportation projects (urban trams, high speed rail, etc.) which consume an immense amount of both Capex and Opex without generating the revenues for maintenance of the system.  Further, most of these states have reasonably shaky state budgets with especially high pension burdens which consume so much of the budget that infrastructure needs end up getting postponed.  

Anyway, an interesting effort on the part of Potter.

History

 

An Insight

 

I see wonderful things

 

Offbeat Humor

 






















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Data Talks

 

People may say what they like about the decay of Christianity; the religious system that produced green Chartreuse can never really die.

From The Complete Saki.  Page 9.

Personally, I can’t see where the difficulty in choosing suitable presents lies. No boy who had brought himself up properly could fail to appreciate one of those decorative bottles of liqueurs that are so reverently staged in Morel’s window—and it wouldn't in the least matter if one did get duplicates. And there would always be the supreme moment of dreadful uncertainty whether it was créme de menthe or Chartreuse—like the expectant thrill on seeing your partner's hand turned up at bridge. People may say what they like about the decay of Christianity; the religious system that produced green Chartreuse can never really die.

 House in August by Christopher Pratt (Canadian, 1935-2022)




















Click to enlarge.

The Enlightenment sought to submit traditional verities to a liberated, analytic human reason.

From How the Enlightenment Ends by Henry A. Kissinger.  The subheading is Philosophically, intellectually—in every way—human society is unprepared for the rise of artificial intelligence.

This is from seemingly long ago 2018.

Heretofore, the technological advance that most altered the course of modern history was the invention of the printing press in the 15th century, which allowed the search for empirical knowledge to supplant liturgical doctrine, and the Age of Reason to gradually supersede the Age of Religion. Individual insight and scientific knowledge replaced faith as the principal criterion of human consciousness. Information was stored and systematized in expanding libraries. The Age of Reason originated the thoughts and actions that shaped the contemporary world order.

But that order is now in upheaval amid a new, even more sweeping technological revolution whose consequences we have failed to fully reckon with, and whose culmination may be a world relying on machines powered by data and algorithms and ungoverned by ethical or philosophical norms.

The internet age in which we already live prefigures some of the questions and issues that AI will only make more acute. The Enlightenment sought to submit traditional verities to a liberated, analytic human reason. The internet’s purpose is to ratify knowledge through the accumulation and manipulation of ever expanding data. Human cognition loses its personal character. Individuals turn into data, and data become regnant.

Users of the internet emphasize retrieving and manipulating information over contextualizing or conceptualizing its meaning. They rarely interrogate history or philosophy; as a rule, they demand information relevant to their immediate practical needs. In the process, search-engine algorithms acquire the capacity to predict the preferences of individual clients, enabling the algorithms to personalize results and make them available to other parties for political or commercial purposes. Truth becomes relative. Information threatens to overwhelm wisdom.

Inundated via social media with the opinions of multitudes, users are diverted from introspection; in truth many technophiles use the internet to avoid the solitude they dread. All of these pressures weaken the fortitude required to develop and sustain convictions that can be implemented only by traveling a lonely road, which is the essence of creativity.

The impact of internet technology on politics is particularly pronounced. The ability to target micro-groups has broken up the previous consensus on priorities by permitting a focus on specialized purposes or grievances. Political leaders, overwhelmed by niche pressures, are deprived of time to think or reflect on context, contracting the space available for them to develop vision.

The digital world’s emphasis on speed inhibits reflection; its incentive empowers the radical over the thoughtful; its values are shaped by subgroup consensus, not by introspection. For all its achievements, it runs the risk of turning on itself as its impositions overwhelm its conveniences.

Indeed.  Our current prosperity and well being are the product of a perhaps unique combination and fusion of Christian world view, Age of Enlightenment reasoning, Classical Liberalism (Hume, Smith, Ferguson, Mills, Kant), and the philosophy of Classical writers, especially the Stoics.  

It is easy to focus on the threats to our modern Age of Enlightenment Classical Liberalism as being merely the antagonism of Marxism, Maoism, Totalitarian States (China), Racism (Critical Race Theory), Social Justice Theory, etc.  All forms of authoritarian disempowerment and intellectual regressivism and revanchism.

And that is certainly tactically true.

But I wonder whether the current threats to the Age of Enlightenment Classical Liberal world is perhaps most threatened by the fact that we have not tended the roots of that world.  Christianity has succeeded in cultivating human universalism (we are all gods children), charity (I am my brother's keeper), mercy and redemption, etc. to such a degree that those central tenants of Christianity are now secular nostrums.  They are accepted without examination and cultivation.

Similarly, the Stoics (and on down to the Founding Fathers) set great store on moral self-improvement.  You cannot reliably improve the world but you can improve yourself. Happiness arises from self-mastery.  All the benefits of the Age of Enlightenment Classical Liberal world very much depend on the ongoing cultivation of strong agency.  It was once accepted de facto that self-improvement was a personal responsibility requiring cultivation.  But the very success of such behaviors created the prosperity that allowed the otherwise untenable believes of universal victimhood.

The Classical Liberal world view (rule of law, equality before the law, due process, natural rights, personal autonomy, etc.) married with its near sibling Age of Enlightenment empiricism and rationalism are embedded everywhere and drive prosperity and individual well-being.  But again, these beliefs and convictions are not natural.  They emerge from history and experience and have to be cultivated and passed on.  In all our prosperity and security, it is easy to lose sight of our dependence on these world views and how the hard work of cultivating the seed ground has to be done on a continuing basis.

To secure our happy future, we must return to the active cultivation of the values, beliefs and behaviors arising from Christianity, Stoicism, Age of Enlightenment rationalism/empiricism, and Classical Liberalism.  We have lapsed into the lazy condition of assuming that those beliefs and values are self-generating when the reality is that we can't simply and idly wait to receive them.  We have to cultivate them and build them as on everlasting project.  

What once were voting blocs are fragmenting into individuals with agency.

From Anatomy of Trump’s triumph by Ramesh Thakur.  A much more vigorously and empirically argued essay than most of the post-election analyses which are usually either rear-actions for advocacy interests (don't blame my group) or simplistic mono-causal explanations for a multi-causal outcome from a complex multi-system process.  

In an NBC exit poll, Trump won 57 per cent of white and 55 per cent of male voters, retaining his hold on these groups. In an AP exit poll, he won 20 per cent of the black vote, up from 8 in 2016 and 13 in 2020. Harris’s 80 per cent black vote is a ten-point drop from Joe Biden’s four years ago. In addition, he also won the support of 46 per cent of Latinos, 39 per cent of Asian-Americans, 54 per cent of ‘Other,’ 45 per cent of women, and 43 per cent of 18–to-29-year-olds. Hence the prospect of a major new realignment of American politics. There are important lessons in all this for centre-right parties across the West: authentic conservatism attracts more voters than it repels.

Trump’s success in creating a multi-ethnic winning coalition indicates that voting trends may be coalescing, with previously segmented cohorts normalising and starting to vote more as Americans and less as ethnics. Thus in an AP analysis, the economy and jobs rated as the top issues for voters overall, for blacks and Latinos, and for the youth. Phrases such as the Latino, black or Asian-American vote are increasingly meaningless. What once were voting blocs are fragmenting into individuals with agency. This can only be good for the long-term health of American democracy, contrary to the hysterical warnings of its imminent collapse should Trump win.

I will be glad to see the back of crude Marxist race identity as a basis for politics.

Wednesday, November 20, 2024

History

 

An Insight

 

I see wonderful things

 

Offbeat Humor

 

The prevalent ideas on the subject are not creditable to a civilized community.

From The Complete Saki.  Page 8.

There ought (he continued) to be technical education classes on the science of present-giving. No one seems to have the faintest notion of what any one else wants, and the prevalent ideas on the subject are not creditable to a civilized community.

Data Talks

 

Orchids, 1982 by Robert Mapplethorpe

Orchids, 1982 by Robert Mapplethorpe


























Click to enlarge.

Tuesday, November 19, 2024

Most of what the federal government does is subsidize consumption.

I have for years said that the primary objective of any government is to ensure long term productivity growth.  Everything else desirable follows from real porductivity growth.  No productivity growth and all you get is unpleasant decline.

From Cutting Entitlements by Douglas Holtz-Eakin.  Saying basically the same thing in a different way.

Most of what the federal government does is subsidize consumption. The federal budget is just a big machine that takes money from saving and investment and transforms it into consumption. And the only way economies grow successfully is to defer consumption, save and invest for the future. So, it is stacked to make things perform worse. I want to stack it the other way.

History

 

An Insight

 

I see wonderful things

 

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Data Talks

 

What did the Caspian Sea?

From The Complete Saki, page 8.  

At that particular moment the croquet players finished their game, which had been going on without a symptom of finality during the whole afternoon. Why, I ask, should it have stopped precisely when a counter-attraction was so necessary? Every one seemed to drift towards the area of disturbance, of which the chairs of the Archdeacon’s wife and Reginald formed the storm-centre. Conversation flagged, and there settled upon the company that expectant hush that precedes the dawn—when your neighbours don't happen to keep poultry.

“What did the Caspian Sea?” asked Reginald, with appalling suddenness.

There were symptoms of a stampede. The Archdeacon’s wife looked at me. Kipling or some one has described somewhere the look a foundered camel gives when the caravan moves on and leaves it to its fate. The peptonized reproach in the good lady's eyes brought the passage vividly to my mind. 
 
What is that trigger, “What did the Caspian Sea?”  Clearly some sort of an allusion which would have been clear to an intelligent reader circa 1900-4.  

Researching the question, it seems that there are three possible interpretations.  One is that it is an allusion to a mutoscope, certainly an inappropriate subject in the vicinity of the Archdeacon's wife.  I recall the titillating "What did the butler see?" formulation from my youth in England in the 1960s but I remember no historical context such as Wikipedia provides.  It was merely a received implication that the butler saw something salacious.

What the Butler Saw is a mutoscope reel and an early example of erotic films dating from the early 1900s. It depicted a scene of a woman partially undressing in her bedroom, as if some voyeuristic "butler" were watching her through a keyhole. The film was seen by depositing a coin in a freestanding viewing machine, which then freed a hand-crank on the side which was turned by the viewer. Social standards are subject to change, and by the 1950s this and similar films were considered harmless when compared to contemporary erotica.

The title of this feature became widely used in Britain as a generic term for devices and films of this type. The phrase had entered British popular culture after the 1886 divorce case of Lord Colin Campbell and Gertrude Elizabeth Blood. The trial hinged on whether their butler could have seen Lady Colin in flagrante with Captain Shaw of the Metropolitan Fire Brigade, through the keyhole of their dining room at 79 Cadogan Place, London.

The second interpretation is that “What did the Caspian Sea?” is merely word play as in the innocent Delaware song in 1959 by Perry Como.

Delaware
by Perry Como

Oh what did Del-a-ware boy, what did Delaware
What did Del-a-ware boy, what did Delaware
She wore a brand New Jersey,
She wore a brand New Jersey,
She wore a brand New Jersey,
That's what she did wear

One, two, three, four
Oh, why did Cali-fon-ia
Why did Cali-fon
Why did Cali-fon-ia
Was she all alone

She called to say Ha-wa-ya
She called to say Ha-wa-ya
She called to say Ha-wa-ya
That's why she did call

Uno, due, tre, quattro
Oh what did Missi sip boy
What did Missi sip
What did Missi sip boy
Through her pretty lips

She sipped a Minne sota
She sipped a Minne sota
She sipped a Minne sota
That's what she did sip

Un deux trois quatre
Where has Oregon, boy
Where has Oregon
If you wan Al-ask-a
Al-ask-a where she's gone

She went to pay her Texas
She went to pay her Texas
She went to pay her Texas
That's where she has gone

Eins zwei drei vier
Oh how did Wis-con-sin boy
She stole a New-brass-key
Too bad that Arkan saw, boy
And so did Tenne-see

It made poor Flori-di, boy
It made poor Flori-di, you see
She died in Miss-our-I, boy
She died in Miss-our-I
Oh what did Del-a-ware boy, what did Delaware
What did Del-a-ware boy, what did Delaware

Other elaborations of some antiquity include:

How do you make a Maltese cross? (Stick a finger in his eye.)

How do you make a Swiss roll? (Push him down a mountain.)

Other innocent permutations might be:

What did the Caspian See?  He saw the Persian Golf.

What did the Caspian See?  He saw the Queue Wait.

 What did the Caspian See?  He saw the Arabian Dessert.

What did the Caspian See?  He saw the Kazakh Stand.  
 
But if so, it is hard to understand the social consternation.  Seems like there is more going on here than innocent word play.

se16teddy has an erudite suggestion based on Kazakhstan.  The third interpretation might be:

What did the Caspian see?
She saw the Kazakh's stand.

Extract from the definition of stand (noun 1) in the OED:
5d. = erection (n. 4). slang. 
 
1867 Rosa Fielding in S. Marcus Other Victorians (1966) v. 227 He had a tremendous cock-stand, and felt that if it was not allayed pretty quickly that he must burst. 
 
1868 tr. Martial Index Expuratorius 88 Maevius who while sleeping only gets A piss-proud stand that melts away on waking. 
 
1903 J. S. Farmer & W. E. Henley Slang VI. 346/1 Stand,‥(venery).—1. An erectio penis.

All possible.  Relying on Occam's Razor, I'd have to go with "What did the Caspian Sea?" functioning as a call on the lewdness of "What did the butler see?"

There are other rabbits that could be chased in this brief passage.  The look of peptonized reproach?  Invoking perhaps the discomfort of bad digestion.  

Kipling's reference (or someone's) to "the look a foundered camel gives when the caravan moves on and leaves it to its fate"?  I can't find that in Kipling or elsewhere.  But it is an evocative image.  

Bias of flipped coins

Hmmm.  The claim from Nate Silver is that flipping a coin is not truly random and that a flipped coin will land heads up 50.5% of the time.  Specifically, from A random number generator determined the “favorite" in our forecast by Nate Silver.  

From the model’s standpoint, though, the race is literally closer than a coin flip: empirically, heads wins 50.5 percent of the time, more than Harris’s 50.015 percent.

The fundamental claim seems quite plausible.  Are all coins equally weighted along the front to back axis?  Is there a bias in terms of whether people initiate the flip with heads or tails up?  Does the technique of flipping affect the outcome?  All plausible questions.

If it were true that a coin favors Heads by 50.5% of the time, I would have thought that to be common knowledge.  Since I have never seen that claim before, it makes me curious.  What is the empirical reality?  

Nate Silver is a pretty careful writer, so I am surprised at what I find.  It seems he is accidentally mischaracterizing the research.  

As far as I can tell, the research is answering a slightly different question than that which Silver asks.

Silver is asking something along the lines of:

Given a real coin, what percentage of the time will it land Heads?  And the answer according to him is 50.5%

The research seems to be:

For any coin that is tossed vigorously and high, and caught in midair (rather than bouncing on the ground), what is the probability that it will land with the same face as it was launched?  The answer is that there is a 50.8% chance that such a coin will be caught with the same face showing as launched.  

That is a reasonably distinct difference.  Maybe Silver has better sources that answer his question but his links go to research that is answering the second question.  

The original research back in 2007 was Dynamical Bias in the Coin Toss done by Persi Diaconis, Susan Holmes and Richard Montgomery and then further reported in The Fifty-One Percent Solution.   Further research, Flipped coins found not to be as fair as thought by Bob Yirka, backed the original Diaconis findings.  Further reporting in Scientists Destroy Illusion That Coin Toss Flips Are 50–50 by Shi En Kim.  

The original research used a mechanical flipping device while the 2023 research used humans.  Different methodologies, similar results.

Whatever the currency, if you can see the face and call that before it being flipped, you will be correct 51 percent of the time.  

Which is interesting knowledge but with limited utility.  

For day-to-day decisions, coin tosses are as good as random because a 1 percent bias isn't perceptible with just a few coin flips, says statistician Amelia McNamara of the University of St. Thomas in Minnesota, who wasn't involved in the new research. Still, the study's conclusions should dispel any lingering doubt regarding the coin flip's slender bias. “This is great empirical evidence backing that up,” she says.

There is a bias with flipped coins and it is 51% towards the top surface when flipped.  However, given that the face is often not visible, that the coin is not always caught in the air, and other minor factors, the actual bias will fluctuate unpredictably and therefore the flipped coin is functionally random.  The bias is less than the operational noise in the process.

Konjikido in Snow, Hiraizumi, 1957 by Kawase Hasui

Konjikido in Snow, Hiraizumi, 1957 by Kawase Hasui






























Click to enlarge.