For 5 years we were told America was “millions of homes short.”
— Jon Brooks (@jonbrooks) February 20, 2026
Here were the estimates:
• NAR: 5.5M (as high as 6.8M)
• Freddie Mac: 3.8M
• Zillow: 4.5M
• NLHC (rentals): 7.1M
Consensus? 5–7 million homes short.
Now JP Morgan: ~1.2M
That’s nearly an 80% revision.
Was it…
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