An Insight

Let's think about the weather.

If I say, "It's going to rain tomorrow" that's a forecast.

If I say, "Conditional on recent weather fronts continuing to go in a straight line, it's going to rain tomorrow" that's a projection.

Demographers believe this is a very big distinction

— Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 (@lymanstoneky) July 3, 2025