From Selection, Patience, and the Interest Rate by Radoslaw Stefanski and Alex Trew. From the Abstract:
The interest rate has been falling for centuries. The key to explaining this decline is increasing societal patience, driven by a process of natural selection. Three observations support this mechanism: patience varies across individuals, is inter-generationally persistent, and is positively related to fertility. To establish the importance of this channel, we introduce a dynamic, heterogeneous-agent model of fertility. The structure of our model enables us to use modern, micro level data to calibrate the historical distribution of patience. Our quantitative results match the centuries-long fall in the interest rate, highlighting the crucial role of selection in this historical, and ongoing, trend.
If this is saying what I think it is saying it makes me a little nervous. I am interpreting this to mean that
1) The interest rate has been falling for centuries2) The behavioral trait of patience contributes to a lower interest rate3) The behavioral trait is heritable4) Productive societies select for the trait of patience.
Possibly a Just So story. Possibly directionally true. Certainly plausible.
Plausible but unproven, I'd say.
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