Doubling down on failure by restricting information flow and free speech

The Classical Liberal model of the world is constituted of four parts.

First, there is the overarching framework which includes rule of law, equality before the law, due process, trial by jury, consent of the governed, natural rights (freedom of speech, religion, movement, etc.), individual autonomy, responsibility and accountability, etc.  

Then there are the three engines of prosperity which flow from the framework and which generate the well-being which is such a distinctive feature of Classical Liberal systems of governance.

The three engines are 

Mobility of knowledge and resources via free speech and price signals from the market

Effective optimization of resources via free market and private property

Knowledge creation via scientific method

All three are equally critical.  

Typically, established interests of one sort or another are the traditional impediment to the full realization of the power of these three engines.

Sometimes it is ideology which is the barrier.  China, famously, has sought prosperity via government by central planning experts supplemented with limited markets while maintaining a tight control over mobility of knowledge in the form limiting and controlling speech.  

But constraint of speech is a constraint of information flow and the constraint of information flow inherently sub-optimizes both the quality of decisions and the responsiveness of the system to endogenous and exogenous shocks. 

Autocratic systems, depending on control of the population, almost always run afoul of free speech.  They can succeed temporarily based on their command and control structure but they soon subvert both investment and consumption because people cannot read reality.  State and public legibility is retarded.  

As the negative consequences of misallocated scarce capital, talent, and resources accumulates and compounds, the need to control information becomes ever more critical.

China has never been noted for the quality of its public data (finance, production, etc.) but as the State becomes increasingly autocratic, and as it increasingly strangles the free market goose which produced the golden eggs, the need to control the evidence becomes overwhelming.

Leading to this most recent example of this whole dynamic.  From China stops releasing youth unemployment data after it hit consecutive record highs by Laura He of CNN.  

China has suspended the release of monthly data on joblessness among young people, after the figure hit consecutive record highs in recent months amid a broader economic slump.

The news, which drew immediate backlash and ridicule on social media, was announced by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Tuesday, when it released its regular batch of monthly economic indicators. Previously, the NBS unveiled urban unemployment rates for 16- to 24-year olds each month.

[snip]

The suspension comes after China’s youth unemployment rate hit consecutive record highs in recent months. From April to June, the jobless rate for 16- to 24-year-olds reached 20.4%, 20.8% and 21.3% respectively.

The announcement quickly became a trending topic online.

“What they really meant to say is, the current data is too ugly, let’s not look at it for now,” said a comment with more than 9,000 upvotes on microblogging site Weibo, where a hashtag about the news garnered 100 million views.

A record 11.6 million college graduates were seeking jobs this year. They face bleak prospects as the Chinese economy lost momentum after the second quarter, when a post-pandemic rally faded.

All this information is useful in making present decisions based on future estimations.  Indeed, necessary.  

Autocratic systems don't want to be seen to be failing and therefore their instinct is to hide anything that might be seen as a failure.  But by hiding the data, they merely make the failure worse.