Sunday, February 5, 2023

A study in contrasts of a sort

I am seeing variations on this post in several forums.  The obvious point is to indict our gerontocratic political class in comparison to the youthful leaders of the American Revolution.  

Ages on July 4, 1776: James Monroe (18), Aaron Burr (20), Alexander Hamilton (21), Betsy Ross (24), James Madison (25), Benjamin Rush (30), Elbridge Gerry (31), Thomas Jefferson (33), John Adams (40), John Hancock (40), George Washington (44), Benjamin Harrison V (50), Sam Adams (53), Benjamin Franklin (70).

Ages on February 4, 2023: Ron DeSantis (44) Hakeem Jeffries (52), Gavin Newsom (55) Kevin McCarthy (58), Chuck Schumer (72), Patty Murray (72), Hillary Clinton (75), Donald Trump (76), Mitch McConnell (80), Joe Biden (80), Bernie Sanders (81), Anthony Fauci (82), Nancy Pelosi (82), Chuck Grassley (89), Dianne Feinstein (89).

It is a worthwhile point to make, if somewhat naive.  Obviously we have to adjust for differential life expectancy between the current day and at the time of the Revolution.  

The average life expectancy of an American in 1776 was 35 ears.

The average life expectancy of an American today is 79 years.

American life expectancy today is 126% longer than at the time of the Revolution.  We live two and a quarter times longer.  The average age on the first list is 36.  The average age on the second list is 79.  If you take into account the increase in longevity, and multiply the age 36 by the 126% increase, you get . . . 79.  The same average as the second list.  

That is something of a fatuous coincidence but it does reinforce that comparing age of accomplishment in two eras has to take into account the longevity in the two eras.  

Three thoughts keep returning to me  as I consider those numbers.

First is that this is almost inherently an artificial and a definitional artifact. 

Who are the individuals in the two lists?  The first list is not Founding Fathers, it includes some who are not considered Founding Fathers and omits some who are.  What is the organizing principle for the second list?  There appear to be four categories.  Primarily Federal leaders, Two Governors, Three retired politicians, and the former Leader of the National Institute of Health.  There is no organizing principle here except possibly names that are top of mind for insiders of the Washington, D.C, beltway.  

So both lists are not created based on categorical definitions or clear principles but appear to be somewhat arbitrarily chosen names.  

Who were the Founding Fathers?  Not this list of fourteen.  Aaron Burr, Betsy Ross, Benjamin Rush, Elbridge Gerry, Benjamin Harrison V are important characters during the Revolution but are rarely identified as Founding Fathers.  

There seven Founding Fathers who almost everyone acknowledges:

George Washington
Thomas Jefferson
John Adams
Benjamin Franklin
Alexander Hamilton
John Jay
James Madison.

John Jay (31 years old in 1776) is missing from the putative list.  

Their average age was 38.  

Individuals who are often considered Founding Fathers but who are not included in the list include:

John Jay (31)
Richard Henry Lee (44)
Robert R. Livingston (32)
George Mason (51)
Robert Morris (42)
Peyton Randolph (55)
Roger Sherman (55)

Others who are often considered Founding Fathers include any who signed (or participated in) the  Continental Association, Declaration of Independence, Articles of Confederation, and U.S. Constitution.  Further there are the heroes of the Revolution who don't necessarily fall into any of the above categories such as

Patrick Henry
Nathanael Greene
Henry Knox
John Stark
Daniel Morgan
Anthony Wayne
Abigail Adams
Ethan Allen
John Paul Jones

The actual average age of the fifteen individuals who are most commonly acknowledge as Founding Father's is a much more mature 45 years old.  The Revolutionary War list has been artificially constructed to lower the average age of leaders from 45 to 35.  This a clear problem even before taking into account any adjustment for differences in longevity.  

The second thought, looking at the supposed lists is that most of our politicians today are first and foremost professional politicians.  For most of them, virtually their entire lives have been spent in politics.  They have no notable accomplishments outside of politics.

The issue is not so much that they are old (though that is potentially an issue).  It is that they are isolated and sheltered.  Their life experience in no way reflects the life experience of the average American.  They show little of the breadth of experience and capability that most Americans expect and instead are specialists in the very narrow, very insular field of political governance.  

For the leaders of the revolution, most were not just young.  Up to the start of the Revolution, most of them had major accomplishments outside the field of politics as businessmen or as planters or as warriors or as merchants or as artisans or as lawyers or as publishers or as scientists.  Some had demonstrated mastery in multiple fields.  They were worldly and experienced compared to our political caste today.  

The third thought is related to the second.  If, in 1776, we were to ask who are the most influential or most accomplished leaders in the colonies, we would likely arrive at a list reasonably close to the individuals discussed.  

If we were to ask Americans today, who are the most influential and accomplished leaders in the country today, it would differ reasonably significantly from the list of fifteen at the head of this post and quite possibly look more like the Revolutionary list with all those scientists, agriculturalists, merchants, soldiers, financiers, publishers, etc.

The list would be vastly longer and much more diverse and include names such as Elon Musk, Bill Gates, Tom Brady, Tim Cook, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, Larry Page, Sergey Brin, Mark Cuban, Phil Knight, Venus and Serena Williams, Derek Jeter, Michael Jordan, Peyton Manning, Bjorn Lomborg, Steven Pinker, Jordan Peterson, Lawrence Summers, etc.

The point is not that any of these individuals would be great politicians.  The point is that they have a greater and more important involvement and influence on the lives of Americans than many if not most politicians.  

A different way of putting it is that in the Revolutionary era, the top talent and influential leaders were co-mingled and  diversely talented.  Today we have a rich bank of influential talent but it rarely spills over into the class of political leaders.  

No comments:

Post a Comment