Choosing to instigate a middle class flight to the suburbs.

From ‘Bleeding blue’: Cops flee NYPD in biggest exodus since 9/11 By Dean Balsamini.  One bad retention year does not a disaster make.  But two such years are problematic.  And if they continue, you quickly enter disastrous territory.

The NYPD saw 3,701 cops retire or resign in 2022, the most since the post-9/11 exodus in 2002, when 3,846 cops said goodbye to the job, according to data obtained by The Post. 

Pension fund numbers reveal the 2022 exits are 32% more than the 2,811 who left in 2021.

The mass migration took place as the NYPD hired 1,982 officers in 2022, leaving the department down some 1,700 cops, the data suggests.

Bail reform, resentment for the city’s vaccination mandate, the defund-the-police movement, cops feeling disrespected, and the lure of higher pay and lower stress proved to be the final push out the door for many cops.

“The city is bleeding blue and I think the blue line will get thinner,” said Joseph Giacalone, a retired NYPD sergeant and adjunct professor at John Jay College of Criminal Justice. “At this rate, continued public safety weighs in the balance. I’d be more concerned at the resignations than the retirements. Cops are leaving for better pay, benefits, and working conditions.”

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The current PAPD [Port Authority Police Department and destination for many exiting NYPD officers] academy class has 138 recruits, with 60 who are former NYPD officers, said Robert Egbert, a PAPBA spokesman.

Bad public policy is an indulgence and for whatever reason many city governments have been enthusiastically indulging in bad policy.  There probably is a three to five year window of grace before the consequences become obvious to everyone.  After that, recovery probably becomes at least difficult if not unlikely.  And many big city mayors seem to be blithely barreling down that runway.  

It takes a lot to convince people to uproot their lives and move, but once they have made that decision it is hard to reverse it.  And once it begins to be seen as a pattern, there is a significant risk of a preference cascade occurring.  We might be in the early stages for another middle class flight to the suburbs.