Unearned political income

I am looking at three different systems and see an intersection which appears to be interesting.

In economics, I see both economic partisans as well as pure economists reaching rather different conclusions based mostly on the mental models they are applying.  For some, the outcome is that within a year inflation will be under control and real incomes rising again.  On the other hand, there are economist who believe that inflation is not yet under control and that those prospects are slim.  They see resumption of real growth being at least a year or two away.  Many of them also see a definitive recession in the immediate future. 

So among economists, restoration is either one or two or three years out.  

Now I map those observations onto the political arena.  If the above scenarios are the most likely, then, almost regardless of the actual outcomes of the November 8th election, Republicans are well placed for 2024.

If, against expectations, they do poorly, then either Scenario One is in play which means that people will have had three years of bad performance and one year of restorative growth in 2024.  That is not a bad position to campaign on.  And that is the best possible scenario for Democrats.

If Scenario Two is in play, and the economy doesn't begin recovery till 2024-25, then the Republican's position is that by returning Democrats in 2022, voters locked in further bad policies with predictable negative consequences.  The Republicans have an excellent position to campaign from in 2024.

On the other hand, if Republicans do have their tidal wave, they still have an upside on both scenarios.  Yes, they are now in control of Congress but it took two years to get into this mess and it likely will take a couple of years to get out.  Of course they will have to pass some apparent legislation that can be linked to either shorter term (Scenario One) or longer term (Scenario Two) improvements. 

Because of the economic forecasts, and regardless of their actual electoral performance, Republicans can take credit for shorter term or longer term improvements.   Either 1) You returned us in 2022 and we turned it around quickly, or 2) you returned us in 2022 and it took a couple of years but we are now growing again.  Almost regardless of their actual policies.  It is baked into the economic pudding.  

Republican's worst case scenario is if they do badly in 2022 and the one faction of economists forecasting a quick correction are right.  In that worst case scenario, they still have the basic case of economic mismanagement even if corrected.  That is not a bad place to be campaigning from.

In every other outcome, based on the economic forecasts, they either do well or can be made to seem to be doing well, regardless of their actual performance.

This is not a criticism of either party.  It is just an observation of the consequences of the intersection of two different systems (economic and political) regardless of the actions of either party.  

Finally, there is the political demographic system which is always in play.  In any given election cycle, one party or the other is usually at a greater or lesser advantage based on open seats, retirements and redistricting.  

In this cycle, a year ago, it was anticipated that Republicans were disadvantaged, they were defending more seats and, particularly, more open seats, than Democrats.  Democrats were anticipated to easily retain control of the House and possibly their knife edge advantage in the Senate.  Simply from demographic changes in the party.

In contrast, 2024 has all along been anticipated to be a hard year for Democrats.  They have an unusually large number of open Senate seats being defended compared to the Republicans.  Regardless of the ebbs and flows political enthusiasms, 2022 was supposed to a good year for Democrats and a bad one for Republicans.

If the political tides favor Republicans in this off year, then they are even better placed come 2024.  It could be a real one-two blow to the Democratic Party.  Again, reasonably independently of actual policies and quality of candidates.