Wednesday, May 4, 2022

You should be concerned that the conversation has taken this turn in the first place

From GDP shrank last quarter. Are economists right to reassure us? by Alan Cole.  The subheading is "We won't have a demand-side recession like 2008, but we shouldn't be sanguine either."

In these unsettled economic times, with unreliable and idiosyncratically motivated economic prognosticators, it takes a lot of attention to estimate what is actually coming down the pike.  

Just a few months ago, motivated economists and mainstream media were assuring us that rapidly rising inflation was merely transitory and possibly a good thing.  When you try and rebrand your policy failures as "a good thing," it is a pretty reliable red flag that things are about to get worse.  As indeed has the purportedly "transitory" inflation which no one any longer claims is a good thing.

Likewise, the totally unexpected contraction of the economy in the first quarter has Administration economists out in force to reassure citizens that a shrinking economy is merely transitory and not a big deal.  Already wary citizens are not so sure.  The political brand is damaged and the Trust account is overdrawn.

Cole has a nice description of the choppy waters.

So how reassuring should we find these reassurances? The partisan-brained answer is either “very” or “not at all.” But the truth is somewhere in between. Properly understood, these reassurances are a bit like a doctor telling you “at least we know you don’t have cancer.” It’s good to hear, but you should be concerned that the conversation has taken this turn in the first place.

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