Schrödinger's Moskva

A very Schrödinger's cat moment in the Russia-Ukrainian war at the moment.  Late last night, early reports came in that Ukraine had hit Russian cruiser Moskva with two Neptune cruise missiles.  At this very moment, ten hours later, we have at least three plausible versions circulating of what happened.

Well, technically, four.  It is possible that nothing happened at all.  But this seems improbable given the announcements from both the Russian and Ukrainian military commands and given Russian ship movements in the Black Sea.

What are the three scenarios?

Scenario 1:  Ukraine launched two Neptune missiles which struck the Russian cruiser Moskva causing catastrophic damage leading to the loss of the Moskva and its crew.  

Scenario 2:  During a Black Sea storm, Ukraine distracted the Moskva defense systems with aerial drones while launching Neptune cruise missiles which struck the Moskva.  The missiles caused extensive fires and detonated one or more of Moskva's magazines.  54 sailors were rescued by a Turkish freighter before the Moskva capsized and sank taking some 400 Russian sailors to their deaths.  

Scenario 3:  During a Black Sea storm, Moskva suffered an on-board fire of an unknown origin which ignited munitions in its magazines.  The crew were evacuated to other Russian ships, leaving a skeleton damage control crew aboard.  The damage control crew brought the fire under control and the Moskva is being towed to port.  

There are dozens of further permutations which will only be resolved when there is radar, satellite or photographic evidence to support the real disposition of the Moskva.  

All three scenarios are plausible.  Russian maintenance is notorious and they have periodically lost multiple submarines over the past few decades, often due to fires.  The Ukrainians have demonstrated a track record of innovative attacks and defenses.  The Black Sea is notorious for its storm weather and challenging sailing conditions.  

The resolution of this fact scenario will likely resolve in the next 24 hours.  The importance of the event is due to the context of the Russian-Ukrainian war.  If the Moskva is indeed lost with great loss of life, it is a further blow to the Russian military and especially to Putin's reputation.  

Russia will want to hide the event if at all possible and the Ukrainians will want to exploit it.  Russia might be tempted to escalate the savagery of the war as an act of revenge.  The Ukrainians might accelerate their efforts to regain southern territory.

And the disruption of both energy and food markets will continue as long as the war.

This particular Schrödinger's cat condition needs resolving because it materially influences energy and food forecasts.  

We'll see.

UPDATE:  As of 1:07pm ET, no confirmation.  Scenario 2 has evolved with 14 rescued members of Moskva having been brought to Sevastopol but the status of the remaining 496 crew unknown.  

UPDATE: At 5:04pm ET there is confirmation from the Russian Defense Minister that the Moskva has sunk.  Supposedly it was under tow during a storm.  No mention that I can see regarding loss of life.  Earlier Russian official reports indicated that the crew had been evacuated from the ship.