Omicron - fortunate variant or slayer of dysfunctional models. Or both.

It is about ten or twelve days ago that the Omicron variant burst on the scene to frighten children and the weak minded.  It was a pretty spectacular orchestration.  The mainstream media was all about a frightening new strain and the administrative state immediately defaulted to all the past actions which failed to work the first time.  

Fortunately, my customized eco-system of news sources was up to the job.  New variants are happening all the time.  The customary path for any new virus is to become more contagious and less lethal.  There are occasional divergences from that path, but not often.  New virus evolves and that evolution trends towards higher transmission and lower virulence until it reaches some endemic steady state like the flu.  A nuisance but not a catastrophe.

New variant is completely unsurprising.  Why were they making such a big deal about this one.  All the major "reputable" outlets were emphasizing that this could be a disaster.  Well it could be.  Just as you could be struck down by a meteorite.  But what is to be expected?

In this instance, I saw no data suggesting that this was worse than the Delta variant.  

But within three days I am seeing data from the South African front lines.  All of them seem to agree that Omicron has been in circulation there for some unknown time; that there is not enough data to make a solid determination about either transmissibility or virulence; that all the anecdotal data suggests this might be a factor or more transmissible but also substantially less virulent.  I have not seen any news account indicating that Omicron is associated with increased hospitalization or increased death rates.

Within the first week, I see nothing to contradict the assumption that this is a relatively new variant, that it is more transmissible and that it is markedly less lethal.  Data to follow.

But everywhere there are, from the public health experts and the State, bleats of panic.  Flights are shutdown.  Masks reinstated.  Lockdowns reimposed.  

Part of this is due to the predictable and indeed predicted spikes in cases in the northeast and midwest.  Cases are going up because of seasonality but it is being attributed to Omicron.  From all the information I am seeing, the health system is indeed reporting their first sightings of Omicron but no one has yet identified it as being in extended circulation.

Meanwhile there are the usual panic-pushers.

You should already be boosted, but if you’re not, get boosted. https://t.co/h4Oa6ltn4a

— James Surowiecki (@JamesSurowiecki) December 8, 2021

This all seems like a massive propaganda campaign to shore up a hugely profitable business model.  Or perhaps it is that too many people in the establishment always confused the goal as being Zero Covid instead of manageable Covid.

Which is understandable but also paradoxical.  

If the data supports that Omicron is in fact much more transmissible AND also much less lethal, then we want to encourage its spread.  If, as the South African reports indicate, Omicron symptoms are primarily like those of a cold with low hospitalizations and even fewer deaths, then we have something even better than the vaccines.

If an infection with Omicron has few ill-effects and does confer immunity, then we have an easy path to herd immunity.  We still have to protect the most vulnerable, the aged and the multi-comorbidity populations, but otherwise, back to normal for everyone else.  You get cold symptoms and immunity.

No issues with the constitutionality of mandated vaccinations.  No more expenditures on vaccines and masking.  No more disruptions to the supply chain, etc.  Back to normal.

So why is there all the panic about Omicron based on so little evidence of the need to be panicked?

Path dependency might be one explanation - too many institutions committed to active intervention and management to back away and let nature run her course.

Business model beneficiaries is also a likely explanation - too many people benefitting from the panic, either through sales of pharma or through ceded control over others, to let go.

Pure ignorance might be a further explanation - Once the tanker is going, it is difficult to mark a hard stop.

Statist beneficiaries - If all the interventions were dearly purchased for very marginal benefit, then all the State actors are made to appear foolish.

I cannot tell.  But at this precise moment, it is appearing that Omicron is a predicted outcome of the anticipated path of Covid virus evolution; it is more transmissible and much less virulent; it provides a path towards population wide herd immunity at very little cost; and it provides a path to a quick return to normalcy.

All good outcomes.  None of which I see reflected in any of the reports.  Right now the mainstream media and establishment response seems like propaganda to prop up a failed public health campaign.

It might be once we have data on Omicron, it will be different from the anecdotal evidence and what we would otherwise expect from the progressive evolution of such a virus.  There might be a range of unanticipated other complications.  But for now, this is looking like a step forward for everyone.  

UPDATE:  

A South African update consistent with the above.  Just came across it but it was from three days ago.

Double click to enlarge.