Prove the crisis first before explaining it

From The Prosecutor Exodus: In an adverse political environment, experienced professionals are leaving the field—and crime is surging. by Thomas Hogan.  I am willing to believe the proposition but need to see some data confirming that rising prosecutor turnover is a real issue.  Hogan starts with.

Prosecutors across the United States are leaving their jobs. In the years since progressive prosecutor Kim Gardner took over as St. Louis Circuit Attorney, turnover in her office exceeded 100 percent: more prosecutors resigned or were fired during this time than were in the entire office when Gardner was elected. In cities, suburban counties, and rural jurisdictions, elected chief prosecutors and line attorneys alike are stepping away from jobs they once loved. This brain drain of experienced prosecutors has gone overlooked but will have dire long-term effects on the administration of justice.

Journalists drive me crazy with their innumeracy.   The claim that there is a crisis because Gardner has had a 100% percent turnover hinges on how many years she has been in her position.  100% over ten years is not too bad.  100% in one year is catastrophic.  

Kim Gardner has been in her role for four years.   On average, the turnover is around 25% per year.  So, yes, that is high.  But is it high for prosecutor offices in general?  That is what we need to know.  What is the annual turnover rate among prosecutors and is it accelerating?

We don't get that answer.  Hogan merely assumes the crisis exists and then explains the presupposed crisis.   His logic and reasoning is reasonably sound but his evidence is weak.

I go looking.  

Turnover of prosecutors reaching crisis proportions, report says by Steven Elbow in 2011.  Elbow commits the same numeric crime, presenting a multiyear aggregate number as the turnover number.  The turnover is 75% over six years.  On average, 12.5% of prosecutors leave per year in Madison, Wisconsin.  A relatively high number for professionals, but not that much higher.  The average turnover among all employees in the workforce is 15.1% but it is usually lower among white collar positions.  It is certainly much higher than for government employees which averages about 1.4% per year.  

So is there a crisis in prosecutor turnover?  It is not clear.  In some offices, in some places, probably for some time periods, there might be a prosecutor turnover crisis.  But overall, there is no evidence to support that argument.