Rational argument, rhetorical argument, argument from fear and then millenarianism

Independent of the the underlying truth about anthropogenic global warming, a separate debate, it is yet another example of some human fundamental tendency towards millenarianism.

If you cannot convince people through evidence of some need to do something, if you cannot persuade them to voluntarily do something, if you cannot scare people into doing something, then perhaps millenarianism is the last resort. Rational argument, rhetorical argument, argument from fear and then millenarianism.

The bigger the change, the more the risks, the smaller the anticipated benefit from the change, the more likely millenarianism, a quasi religious belief, is likely to dominate the argument.

Brought to mind by Wrong Again: 50 Years of Failed Eco-pocalyptic Predictions by Myron Ebell and Steven J. Milloy. The article is actually a compilation of the work of Tony Heller where he has collected and documented the ebbing and flowing of apocalyptic climate forecasts over the past fifty years, the anticipated ice ages, global desiccations, the acidification of oceans, the loss of atmosphere.

The Sagan Standard requires that

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

It is not a particularly compelling standard. Proof is proof whether deemed extraordinary or not. But it does capture a folk wisdom that acknowledges proof is rarely self-evident and the greater the deviation from orthodox knowledge, the more compelling needs to be the evidence. That in an epistemic world where knowledge is accumulated over time, it should be anticipated that the unsetting of precedent knowledge will only occur with increasing rarity. It can occur, and does occur but the Sagan Standard cautions against wild oscillations and faddishness.

The list of predictions that have failed to come true (including the source documents) are at the link but they include:

1967: ‘Dire famine by 1975.’
Source: Salt Lake Tribune, November 17, 1967

1969: ‘Everyone will disappear in a cloud of blue steam by 1989.’
Source: New York Times, August 10 1969

1970: Ice age by 2000
Source: Boston Globe, April 16, 1970

1970: ‘America subject to water rationing by 1974 and food rationing by 1980.’
Source: Redlands Daily Facts, October 6, 1970

1971: ‘New Ice Age Coming’
Source: Washington Post, July 9, 1971

1972: New ice age by 2070
Source: NOAA, October 2015

1974: ‘New Ice Age Coming Fast’
Source: The Guardian, January 29, 1974

1974: ‘Another Ice Age?’
Source: TIME, June 24, 1974

1974: Ozone Depletion a ‘Great Peril to Life
Sources: Headline, NASA Data | Graph

1976: ‘The Cooling’
Source: New York Times Book Review, July 18, 1976

1980: ‘Acid Rain Kills Life in Lakes’
Source: Noblesville Ledger (Noblesville, IN) April 9, 1980

1978: ‘No End in Sight’ to 30-Year Cooling Trend
Source: New York Times, January 5, 1978

1988: James Hansen forecasts increase regional drought in 1990s
Source: RealClimateScience.com

1988: Washington DC days over 90F to from 35 to 85
Source: RealClimateScience.com

1988: Maldives completely under water in 30 years
Source: Agence France Press, September 26, 1988

1989: Rising seas to ‘obliterate’ nations by 2000
Source: Associated Press, June 30, 1989

1989: New York City’s West Side Highway underwater by 2019
Source: Salon.com, October 23, 2001

1995 to Present: Climate Model Failure
Source: CEI.org

2000: ‘Children won’t know what snow is.’
Source: The Independent, March 20, 2000

2002: Famine in 10 years
Source: The Guardian, December 23, 2002

2004: Britain to have Siberian climate by 2020
Source: The Guardian, February 21, 2004

2008: Arctic will be ice-free by 2018
Source: Associated Press, June 24, 2008

2008: Al Gore warns of ice-free Arctic by 2013
But… it’s still there:
Source: WattsUpWithThat.com, December 16, 2018

2009: Prince Charles says only 8 years to save the planet
Source: The Independent, July 9, 2009

2009: UK prime minister says 50 days to ‘save the planet from catastrophe’
Source: The Independent: October 20, 2009

2009: Arctic ice-free by 2014
Source: USA Today, December 14, 2009

2013: Arctic ice-free by 2015
Source: The Guardian, July 24, 2013

2013: Arctic ice-free by 2016
Source: The Guardian, December 9, 2013

2014: Only 500 days before ‘climate chaos’
Sources: Washington Examiner

Again, the point is not that there is debate about AGW. The point is that we are accustomed to millenarian arguments which do not pan out. If you are going to rely on millenarian arguments, that is the hurdle you have to overcome.